Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[OnSong]

Really liked The Eunuch's last run. Lines up today at Rocky R1.

Got $9 but nutted on the line by some late money special. Man that's heartbreaking.

[Freaky Tah]

Race 2 Mooney Valley tonight Collins Street best bet for mine, was on it last week and probs should have placed at least if not won, Oliver had no where to go behind a wall of horses and basically just cantered over the line behind them all, no surprises to see him back up here as he only had a track gallop last week

its a clear get on for mine #loadup

[gadj1976]

MR 1 5
SR 3 5
SR 7 6
SR 8 15
BR 6 2
BR 7 15

[Spargo]

Race 2 Mooney Valley tonight Collins Street best bet for mine, was on it last week and probs should have placed at least if not won, Oliver had no where to go behind a wall of horses and basically just cantered over the line behind them all, no surprises to see him back up here as he only had a track gallop last week

its a clear get on for mine #loadup

Went like a busted arse.
Haven't heard from the stable or read steward's report yet.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Caulfield r8

1 , 3,13

are my picks here at ew odds

[JK]

Hope LPH stuck with Stratum Star

[mighty_tiger_79]

Was a nice effort by SS

[gadj1976]

MR 1 5
SR 3 5
SR 7 6
SR 8 15
BR 6 2
BR 7 15

Phhhhhtttttt....

[LPH]

Hope LPH stuck with Stratum Star

Sadly JK, I backed Strawberry Boy - got greedy with the $26 & $8 on offer. Thought Cassidy went a little too hard early & that cost him the Place.
Good run by the Winner.

I was right about 'Volky' - it would run in 1st 5... Unfortunately, they don't pay for 5th!!!
Always next week.

[JK]

Hope LPH stuck with Stratum Star

Sadly JK, I backed Strawberry Boy - got greedy with the $26 & $8 on offer. Thought Cassidy went a little too hard early & that cost him the Place.
Good run by the Winner.

I was right about 'Volky' - it would run in 1st 5... Unfortunately, they don't pay for 5th!!!
Always next week.

Bad luck mate, I know it doesnt translate to $$ right now but your radar is working well, and hopefully brings in a few bikkies over the carnival

[OnSong]

A mate of mine has a share of Little Indian, ran second in the first at Mornington yesterday. Finished with a head of steam, unlucky to go down.
Keep an eye out for it.

Accepted for Race 1 at Caulfield on Saturday. 1200m, so an extra 200m and good track. Chris Parnham aboard.
Following this one with interest.

Replay of its fast finish at Mornington on Sep 10 here:
http://www.racing.com/form/2015-09-10/mornington/race/1/results

Had bad luck at Sale last week:
https://www.racing.com/videos/2015-09-24/sale-race-2--24915

[LPH]

Had a bit more time for form this week, Sorry for the length of this one, but I thought you could dissect it should you wish

When assessing the Field for the Epsom – I believe it is a tough Race to find the winner but FWIW, I approached it from the following point-of-view; Remove the Horses you think can’t win & then focus on those left over. So here goes:
The Track will be in fine order, as will the weather (looked on BOM) should be a ‘Good’ Track – so I’m removing the following horses whose BEST form is on Soft or Heavy Ground: 2 & 6... Now removing any horse that hasn’t WON @ the mile or further – removing :15
Remember we are looking for the WINNER – I concede that Winx could well be the best horse in the race, but she’s gunna have to come from a long way back & will need luck – she’ll go back from the gate, possibly last. I think we need to remove those runners unlikely to be in the front 6 in running.
Based on recent form, that removes: 4, 9, 12, 14.
In big races, Gates mean much – so happy to risk those drawn outside Barrier 10, that removes: 3 (he’s been backed & I do like him, but might get caught too wide or have to use a lot of petrol early to get a spot), 10 (again, I like him but may also have to ‘map’ similar to Entirely Platinum, I’ll risk but think he can Place). Don’t think the Jockey will play a part – they are all good.
So that leaves me with: 1, 5, 7, 8, 11
I don’t think Messene can win, I think Hooked will struggle to get the trip, probably 100m too far for it, I think Sadler’s Lake CAN win & Jimmy will give it every chance from the gate – but too short for me @ $8 ... Silver Ball despite having a great record @ the Mile, comes back in distance (which it hasn’t done before) & I don’t like backing horses coming back in distance.
I’m going with No. 8 Equador @ the Value $26 & $7.50 – will be happy with third.
Gai’s record @ the Randwick Mile is exceptional, he’s run in first 2, 13 of 18 starts, 3rd Up record is excellent, as is distance record & track form.
He’ll do me – think I’ll box him with Winx, Sadler’s Lake, Sweynesse & Entirely Platinum for the Trifecta.

Really liked Sailing By’s previous run @ Caulfield. She’s in the Edward Manifold on Sunday, but she’s too short for me & it might be won by a horse running on from the back. If she gets a ‘soft lead’ in front she’ll win.

The winner of the Bart Cummings gets an automatic Melbourne Cup start.
Was early money for La Armistad – in from $51 to $26 early in the week. Form looks poor but has been building the distances – ran third in Lexus with more weight last year… interesting runner, probably Hawkes Team’s only ‘Cup’ Horse. I reckon he’ll run a big race & finish Top 5 – might be well worth a Place Ticket.

Have to back ‘Volky’ again this week, simply because he cost me last week – not with any confidence mind you. If he’s going to run in the Caulfield Cup then he simply has to run in the first 3 here. That said, I do like the Waller Horse Who Shot Thebarman – he ran 4th (third up) in the BMW in the Autumn – that’s @ WFA so he carries 2.5 kg less than WFA here. You know he’ll run the trip. Will be interesting what Waller does – Caulfield Cup or Cox Plate. I reckon he’ll go to the Caulfield Cup – ‘thrown in’ @ 54.5 kgs – he’s my tip for that race. 4.5 kgs less than WFA & over the same distance as the BMW - currently $21 for the CC.

What a weekend of Sport we have in store, Lads! Enjoy!
Hopefully we can get some $$$ in the kick. Don't forget the Star Stable League.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Busy boy

[JK]

I like Winx to round them up, but like your logic and depth of analysis mate, good luck!!!

[mighty_tiger_79]

JRA Cup

Awesome Rock

[bulldog2004]

Buffering the old marvel. Loves the Valley.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Buffering the old marvel. Loves the Valley.

And they bet a ridiculous price

[mighty_tiger_79]

Epsom Handicap

Got it down to three runners here

11 Sadlers Creek is the top pick here, drawn nicely and should get a forward position and sit off the pace
5 messene from the middle draw I think we will push forward here and possibly sit 3 wide with cover which is fine, just don't get too far back
9 - kirramosa - under the odds at $15, will get back from the wide draw and will be looking to go Whooshka down the outside late


Flight Stakes

came up with too many hopes here, 4,6 primarily from 2,5,8,9.

prepared to risk the toppy at the price, especially given Gai has 4 in it, be interesting to see if there is 'team' riding

Metrop

1 - beaten up, drawn nicely and will sit up near the lead, great chance
5 - bonfire - despite the wide draw, I can see this getting across fairly comfortably
7 - almoonqith - at the $6 I would risk it winning, but can be in exotics
8 - Magic Hurricane - $3.80 - No Thanks, again include in exotics but I don't like it here
9 - Chance to Dance - $9.50 yes please, I rate it above the the 7,8
14 - Havana Cooler - $15 is a little tight for me, but I think this could be worth following through the Caulfield Cup and potentially the Melbourne Cup. Its overseas form is first class, today may not be the day, but I can see this winning a big race through the spring and it loses nothing today with the Magic Man Moreira aboard - who demands a set fee of something ridiculous so the owners must think highly of its chances today

[Stumps]

Agree with beaten up. Good value
Winx is clearly the standout tho in Epsom . Only loses if unlucky. Sadlers lake not creek too

[Spargo]

Buffering the old marvel. Loves the Valley.

And they bet a ridiculous price

Absolute iron horse, I've won more coin on him than probably any other horse in the last 20 years.