Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[mighty_tiger_79]

The chef spesh

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[mighty_tiger_79]

Watching some old Melbourne Cups on ch 78

I find myself watching the runs of the beaten brigade moreso than the winners

[Spargo]

As far as Caufield Cup runs go, thought Vengeur Masque has slipped under the radar and they've decided to chance their arms in regards to not running it in the Lexus next Saturday on the hope that it will get in on order of entry anyway, which i think is a smart move

Currently 28th in the order of entry, fingers crossed it gets in.
I'm very confident it will get the two miles, and at $151 ($301 power play) on Sportsbet, you could do a lot worse.

[mighty_tiger_79]

RIP Mannerism

[Corona Man]

Did not have a collect last week... Need some good oil for this Sat... Carn lads!

[LPH]

I think they'll scratch The United States this week & run him next week.
So I've backed Stratum Star @ the Powered Odds of $41 - 1 x 4 Units.
Yes, there'll be a deduction but I reckon that will be compensated for - so you could do worse than that Corona

[gadj1976]

Did not have a collect last week... Need some good oil for this Sat... Carn lads!

Get yourself off to a good start.

Mr 1 1 Hey Doc currently 4.60 on Ubet.

[LPH]

29/10/2016 – Flemington Carnival: Victoria Derby Day

The BEST race day of the year IMHO – unfortunately, I am yet to get to Flemington for the Saturday Meeting (have been to a Cup Day), so that’s on the ‘bucket list’ of things to do & hopefully in the not too distant future. Plenty of great racing, some interesting results & computations for some winners & losers, this week. The debate over moving the McKinnon Stakes to next week means less acceptors remain in the Cup field for Tuesday, than is normally the case each year. The Derby itself has very interesting ‘Form Lines’ – either those that ran last week at The Valley, or those that ran the week prior in the Norman Robinson on Caulfield Cup Day. Big field, too.
Last week was somewhat disappointing in terms of results for me, but we keep ‘plugging away’…

Flemington Race 7 – Victoria Derby

All the talk has been Sacred Elixir after the win last week – which was pretty impressive, I’ll admit. The one I backed in the race, So Si Bon, was a little unlucky I thought – but that said, should’ve probably finished closer to the winner. FWIW, I think he’ll enjoy the Flemington straight far more than the short 250m Mooney Valley version. Should run the added trip & interestingly, Bowman takes the ride (2 previous rides have been on the Waller runner, Wine Bush). I took the Odds Boosted $13 on Ladbrokes, 1 x 3 Units.
The only query for me is the fact he ran last week – but considering that the favourite too ran in that race, I’m happy to risk it.

Of the others – I think Kent couldn’t have run a worse race in the Norman Robinson, so look for improvement from him at massive odds – worth a PLACE ticket at least. And the one I want to ‘save’ on is the Hawkes Team runner; No. 3 Swear. It is interesting that his last start was in Sydney where he ran well. He has the credentials to run the trip (even though he hasn’t won over further than the 7 furlongs) – he could be the ‘fresh horse’, so I’m backing him on the day; 2 x 3 Units.

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 13

Flemington Race 4 – The Lexus Stakes

Very intriguing race – not least of all, for who ends up in the Cup on Tuesday.
I’m putting it out there; I did warn you all about Pentathlon being a big watch last week – spewing I didn’t have a PLACE ticket on him at $9.50!!!

So, using similar logic as last week, I’m going to tip (& back for a PLACE) No. 10 Rose of Virginia in this race. She’s a real ‘Stayer’ & will get the cosiest of runs from the gate. I firmly believe she’s over the odds at $16 the PLACE – 2 Units PLACE
Bet & she’ll give us a ‘look’ at some point (fingers crossed).

In terms of a serious bet in the race – you couldn’t help but like the way Oceanographer ran home for 3rd in the Geelong Cup.
Considering he has to win the race to get in the Cup on Tuesday, he must come into calculations – some Punter had $8K on him to win the Cup @ $26 on Thursday. That’s a big risk IMHO considering he’ll have to run 3 times in 13 days if he runs in the Cup on Tuesday!
He’s too short for me in this race anyway, for me to back him – but I did like his run at Geelong.
Tom Melbourne leads & should set a reasonable pace in the race with the Waterhouse runner Hippopus right there too. The 10 should be on the fence, 2 back. I like De Little Engine at the Powered Price of $9 the win & if I can get $2.60 the Place I would be happy, 2 x 5 Units

Trifecta: 2, 7, 8 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10 / Field (30%) = $54


Flemington Race 5 – Coolmore Stud Stakes

What a race! Really looking forward to this – so many can win! Just look at the ‘Honour Role’ for this race over the years: Zoustar, Star Witness, Weekend Hussler, Sepoy, Alinghi, Encosta De Lago, Our Maiscay, Tierce, Kapstad, Rose of Kingston – impressive list.
This year’s edition looks very competitive - although the scratching today of Capitalist is disappointing.

Mick Price has been very ‘bullish’ in the Press, suggesting Extreme Choice will win comfortably. He tends to ‘tell it like it is’ when he talks to the Press, so you have to take that on board as a Punter. Godolphin reckon Astern is the BEST Sprinter in their yard & Star Turn has been killing his opposition comfortably this campaign. Throw in the Slipper winner Capitalist, the Blue Diamond winner Flying Artie & the unbeaten Russian Revolution & this is a ‘cracking’ race! The Flemington ‘Straight Six’ races are often tricky affairs to navigate. The smallish field doesn’t make it any easier to predict how they will run either.

Do they run down the middle of the track as a pack?
Do they split – some to the inside, others to the outside? Who leads? Who gets a ‘sit’?
All relevant & important questions to consider when tackling the race from a betting perspective.
I had backed Capitalist at the Enhanced Odds of $13 on Ladbrokes – but now he’s been scratched, I need to reconsider.

I think they’ll all come down the middle of the track, initially at least. I reckon Astern gets a bit of cover behind the leaders & should make his move about the 250m, & might just overhaul them in the last 50m of the race. If it pans out how I think, I predict they will over run Russian Revolution & he’ll miss the Place. Great Race – highlight of the Day, even without Capitalist in the field. I’m going with the Sydney Form over the Melbourne Form, so Astern to WIN for me, 4 Units. Also taking an Exacta: 3, 5/ 2 for 3 Units & a Quinella: 2, 3, 5 for 3 Units.

Box Trifecta: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7


Flemington Race 6 – The Myer Classic

Another fantastic race! First Seal won for us last start at Caulfield in the Tristarc, but that was over 1400m – I think that’s her distance, not the Mile, so I will risk her here. The Value in the race is No. 11 Denmagic at the 20/1 quote – she’ll love Flemington IMO & the extra 2 Furlongs is no problem for her. At the Price, I’m willing to have a gamble on her 1 x 5 Units. The PLACE Price is extra ‘juicy’ as I think she gets a nice run from the gate & if Berry can get her out with 300m to go, she may well run down the centre of the track & knock them all out.

Corona: I know I gave you one earlier in the week in Stratum Star (& I stand by that) but THIS one might well be the PLACE Bet of the Day. $8.50 on UBet Thursday Night – I took that, thank you very much!

Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 7, 10, 11, 14

Other Races:

MR 3 – Like No. 12 Chloe in Paris Eachway, perhaps 1 x 4 Units

MR 8 – I’ve already backed one of my fav. Horses Stratum Star at $41 Boosted – 1 x 4 Units on him too. I remain surprised that The United States is running here – I had him ‘pegged’ for next week’s Group 1s.

Quaddie Numbers:
4, 7, 10, 11 / 1, 3, 10, 13 / 1, 2, 3. 7, 9, 16 / 6, 7, 8, 9 for 17% = $ 64.28

So looking forward to the day tomorrow.
Getting home tonight to clean up the Garden, so I can get to Morphettville early & ‘stake my claim’ in the Betting Area. If you are going, come & have a beer. Enjoy the day lads – hopefully we get some money for Cup Day.
Will do a summary of the Cup on Monday Night for you - once I do the Form seriously.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Good write up LPH
I'll be on the golf course, but will get home for the quaddie!!!

It is the best racing day of the year.
Moving the McKinnon Stakes I believe is a mistake...

[Brodlach]

Going to back Bon Aurum again, back to 54kg, not beaten far in the Toorak. Won at Flemington and @ $26 looks value

[Brodlach]

Been told to have a small wager on Our Floral Star @ $51 in the first at Horsham

[Brodlach]

Into $31, was $81 on Sportsbet

[Brodlach]

Led and gone on straightening

[OnSong]

I followed I Love It last spring, very eye catching run at Caulfield last October and went on to do some good things.

Baster gets the best out of this horse, probably more suited to 1200-1400m but I'll have a nibble at $61 to sneak a win or jag a place with a late flurry.

Race 3, number 3. Was going to get on Belsapphire but that was scratched showing similar odds.

Really liking Astern in race 5.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Saracino is my best roughy

[helicopterking]

Got a very healthy multi going into Danish Twist.
Go you good thing.

[OnSong]

I followed I Love It last spring, very eye catching run at Caulfield last October and went on to do some good things.

Baster gets the best out of this horse, probably more suited to 1200-1400m but I'll have a nibble at $61 to sneak a win or jag a place with a late flurry.

Race 3, number 3. Was going to get on Belsapphire but that was scratched showing similar odds.

Really liking Astern in race 5.

I Love It a promising seventh. Came home late. Disappointed to miss a place but around the mark.

[OnSong]

Well, after Astern got knocked off I need some things to improve!

[OnSong]

Unlucky on Denmagic. Had to really shuffle to find some running room and not too far off the winner in 3rd. Great tip LPH.

[mighty_tiger_79]

the last few tips I put in for the tipping comp im in

MR
7 - 3
8 - 11
9 - 5

SR
7 - 10
8 - 7
9 - 13