Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[gadj1976]

How?
Looked way to far back then does it in a race record.

Unreal.

For the first time in a long time, it looked like it was struggling turning. Then bolted. Freak.

[JK]

How?
Looked way to far back then does it in a race record.

Unreal.

For the first time in a long time, it looked like it was struggling turning. Then bolted. Freak.

Yeah really thought this might have been the one for a few moments, then bang, she responds and blows them away again

[mighty_tiger_79]

Apparently got out to $3 on betfair in play.
Not sure how much was matched

[LPH]

G'Day Lads, hardly been on the site this year - guess I'm almost completely finished with the SANFL now

As its that time of year again, wondering if you want me to do Previews of the Spring Race Meetings again this year?
(Um, I'm a bit naughty - got $18 enhanced odds on Humidor last week) I had intended on putting it up on here Friday, but my Lad turned 18 last Friday & I got sidetracked - sorry about that

Let me know if you want me to contribute, yeah?

[Spargo]

I'm voting YES to LPH's spring form.

[gadj1976]

I'm voting YES to LPH's spring form.

Yes LPH

BTW, our new nag is having it's first run at Murray Bridge on Sunday. Blazing Bullet is running in race 3 (I think), barrier 10. Knowing our luck it will be 2 dollar favourite. It's had a couple of jump outs and done ok. Against some more mature gallopers might be a different story.

[LPH]

23/09/2017 (Time Posted: 6:35am Friday, 22/09/17)

Not really getting into too much this far out – still few weeks yet until we get into ‘full swing’ but is always nice to get a little in the ‘kick’ if we can, just so we can load up later. Humidor’s run last week @ Flemington sees him come into Fav for the Caulfield Cup & shorten for the Melbourne Cup. I caught him last week & I suspect the Weir Camp didn’t miss him either, considering the smile on the Trainer’s face after the race! I still think Hartnell is weighted well for the CC & I’m pretty sure Godolphin will avoid facing the ‘Great Mare’ @ The Valley.

I reckon Humidor’s pattern of racing makes Flemington a much brighter prospect than Caulfield, so I can’t have him in CC at the current price.

Almandin’s run was unbelievable over 2500m, 2nd Up! WOW! He looks well on track to repeat last year’s result but the weight is still an issue over 2 Miles IMHO. But you couldn’t help but love the run last week with 61kgs, amazing!

My son & I are travelling to Europe in Jan, so unfortunately I can’t justify a trip to Melbourne to see Winx go for the 3-peat (or The Boxing Day Test Match, for that matter)
Personally, I rate her better than Black Caviar – I just think WFA Middle Distance horses are better than Sprinters, but I might just be biased in my view.

Anyway, to this week:

SR 7 (Rosehill) – The Golden Rose

Difficult race to access IMHO. I don’t want the favourite, way too short @ Evens, for mine. I always like Snowden runners in 5 to 7 Furlong races, so Pariah has to be a chance – but the gate is a worry. No 9 Dracarys should get a very soft run on the Rail & should sit 2 or 3 back the fence – concede it a PLACE chance @ $4.60 fixed but reckon the Tote on the day will be higher ($5 would be very nice).

I’m backing Waterhouse’s Gold Standard (No. 4), 2 Units by 5. The run in the Stan Fox, on pace, suggests this Colt can sit handy (perhaps 1-1) from Gate 10. I’m relying on him jumping well from Gate 10, but if he does, Berry is a great rider of on-pace runners & you know Gai will have him ‘rock hard fit’. At the $15 Power Play, too juicy not to take – in fact I took it Thursday Night.

Trying a new Trifecta Strategy this Year (apart from the Big Cups).
3 Chosen Horses (who I think can Quinella the race) + Field
(AB/AB/Field; AC/AC/Field; BC/BC/Field)
$12 each for 50% (2 x 1 x 12) Total $36

Trifectas: 2,3/2,3/Field; 2,4/2,4/Field; 3,4/3,4/Field

MR 7 (Caulfield) – The Naturalism

Weir (3) & Hayes (4) runners dominate the Field here, which I hate. A lot like Almandin’s race last week with the amount of Lloyd Williams runners. It makes predicting leaders & ‘position in running’ difficult to assess, particularly in a Stayers race. That said, I can see 1, 6, 7, 11 & 13 going forward. The pace up front will tell a lot in terms of the last 400m coming around the turn. If 6 & 1 go hard up front, that brings the ‘back markers’ into the race. That said, I want to be on a mid-field runner, 1 or 2 horses off the fence.

Big Duke drops 2.5 kgs on his previous run @ The Valley. He ran home well there over the Mile. The extra 2 furlongs suits, as does the longer straight of Caulfield. He’s 3rd up & at the Each way quote of $9 & $3, he’ll do me, 3 x 7 units. Tough Race, lots of variables.
Also, watch the Market (late) on the Mick Kent runner Abbey Marie (10) – stable likes backing their horses when they think they can win. He usually gives an interview too before the race, so if you are watching Racing.com, keep your eyes & ears open

That’s all for this week Lads, but I will finish with the following:
Over the past 6 weeks or so, I have been looking at the results & comparing them to the Tips given from various ‘Pundits’. In Adelaide, Nadia Horne is very successful with her 4 selections per race, particularly with box Trifectas & Pick 4s.

Joel Marshall too, appears to get his 4 selections into the money in Sydney more often than not. We could do worse than to follow their Tips at these Venues over the next few months if ‘Multiples’ are your thing.

Happy Punting!

[JK]

Whilst Menari looks tough to beat in a difficult race, there's plenty of value about some excellent horses .. Chauffeur must be about due and I like Assimilate at $14

[mighty_tiger_79]

Joel Marshall hit a monster quaddie either in autumn or last spring... time flies

[Brodlach]

Got $81 for Trapeze Artist

[gadj1976]

I'm voting YES to LPH's spring form.

Yes LPH

BTW, our new nag is having it's first run at Murray Bridge on Sunday. Blazing Bullet is running in race 3 (I think), barrier 10. Knowing our luck it will be 2 dollar favourite. It's had a couple of jump outs and done ok. Against some more mature gallopers might be a different story.

Race 2. Couldn't win if it was in Race 3 and started in Race 2. Horrible.

[LPH]

29 & 30/09/2017 & 01/10/2017 (posted Wednesday Night 9pm)
Massive weekend of Racing & Group 1’s on all 3 days! Felt a bit unlucky not to get the PLACE $$$ last week in the Golden Rose – hands up those who backed the Winner! As for Big Duke, he was a Big Dud!

Friday at The Valley:

MR 7 ‘The Moir’
Huge field, with 9 of 17 First Up. I think there’s a stand out but the Gate is a big concern. I’ve backed Heatherly – her record Track & Distance is superb. Mooney Valley is that type of track where horse who’ve run well there, tend to keep doing so. Her 2 runs back from a spell have been good & the enhanced $17 & $4.40 with Ladbrokes just had to be taken. I’m very worried about Gate 13, as her best pattern of racing is to lead – so she’ll burn some fuel early to get over. That said, there’s a fair bit of speed around her, so she might get a trail behind 5, 7 or 9. Faatinah is an interesting runner & I’m keen to have a small PLACE bet on it @ $9.20 – will get all the favours from the alley & has a great first up record.

Saturday at Randwick:

SR 7 ‘The Epsom’
The ‘Rule of Thumb’ for any big ‘Randwick Mile’ is back Gai’s horses, but very unusually, she doesn’t have a runner! The barriers again, are sure to play a role in the outcome of the race & that makes the fav Happy Clapper a solid chance, but as you know by now I can’t have 2/1 on any horse, even if it is the best horse in the race. If Red Excitement gets a ‘cosier’ time up front this week, then he’s sure to be in it for a long way. I do like Foxplay @ the price, but the barrier is of concern in terms of winning the race. It appears to me that Tom Melbourne has improved moving away from the Freedmans to the Waller Yard. He seems to have changed him from a distance horse to a middle-distance horse, so I can see him being right in the finish here. His last 2 runs @ the 7 Furlongs have been full of merit, & if we could get $8 plus, I’d like him to win the race. Interesting race.

Trifecta Bets: 1,5/1,5/Field; 1,9/1,9/Field; 5,9/5,9/Field (2 x 2 x 11)

SR 8 ‘The Metropolitan’
Don’t like the race, personally. Will be watching to see if I backed Big Duke a week too early. If I had to have a bet, maybe Foundry but I can’t see too many of this field going on to challenge for the big Cups in a month’s time. Apart from perhaps Libran, these are 2nd string stayers in my view. Leave me out.

Sunday at Caulfield

MR 7 ‘The Underwood’
Hard to go past the top 2 here again. Was happy to be on Humidor the last time these 2 clashed @ Flemington (ran 2nd & 3rd). They will be much harder to run down @ Caulfield, with the shorter straight. Obviously, they are the 2 to beat. Happy to have a small wager on Abbey Marie, on the 7-day back up. The $36 Power-play is worth a few Units & $4.40 the Place (in a 9 horse field) is entertaining as well. I think Hartnell will win & he’s my pick at this stage for the Caulfield Cup. Maybe a couple of Exactas & Quinellas with BHB, Hartnell & Abbs.

MR 8 ‘Rupert Clarke’
Backing Grande Rosso here. In really good form, Corey Brown to ride & he drops 4kgs on his first up 3rd in the Aurie’s Star. 7 Furlong specialist & 2 from 2 @ the track – he’ll do me. Concede winning chances to 1, 3 & 4 but happy with the Powered $18 & the $4.60 the Place is a GIFT in my view. Loaded up on him 4 units x 11units, in fact, my bet of the weekend is Grande Rosso the PLACE, that $4.60 is too tempting.

Trifectas: 1,4/1,4/Field; 1,5/1,5/Field; 4,5/4,5/Field

Lets hope for a collect or two this week
Good Luck Lads!

[mighty_tiger_79]

Another good preview!!!

[JK]

Geez Tom Melbourne has burnt plenty of holes in pockets and wallets (there ya go LPH that oughta get him up)

Another great preview mate, good luck!!

[Booney]

Geez Tom Melbourne has burnt plenty of holes in pockets and wallets (there ya go LPH that oughta get him up)

Another great preview mate, good luck!!

Just keeps coming second....

[JK]

Geez Tom Melbourne has burnt plenty of holes in pockets and wallets (there ya go LPH that oughta get him up)

Another great preview mate, good luck!!

Just keeps coming second....

Don't tell my missus, she'll start calling me Tom

[Johno6]

he said just keeps coming second, not in seconds.......

[JK]

he said just keeps coming second, not in seconds.......

Both are applicable, Im that good

[OnSong]

VR9 13 Think Babe.

Meant to get a run tomorrow but missed out on a start

[Spargo]

Sheidel in the Moir Stakes tonight.
$8.30 bet boost with the magic man back on board, she'll do me.