The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Multi's

[Bum Crack]

Mihocek
Grundy
Parker
Anytime goal scorer $11.50 boosted.

[Bum Crack]

About time. Finally got an 8 leg multi.

[Lightning McQueen]

About time. Finally got an 8 leg multi.

Details?

Membrey and Sexton shanked my 10 legger last night.

[Bum Crack]

About time. Finally got an 8 leg multi.

Details?

Membrey and Sexton shanked my 10 legger last night.

I tried to post the bet slip but comes up with some message about too many pixels.

King brothers, Butler and Rankine anytime goal

Greenwood, Hill, Billings and Weller 15 or more.

Paid $10.80.

[Lightning McQueen]

About time. Finally got an 8 leg multi.

Details?

Membrey and Sexton shanked my 10 legger last night.

I tried to post the bet slip but comes up with some message about too many pixels.

King brothers, Butler and Rankine anytime goal

Greenwood, Hill, Billings and Weller 15 or more.

Paid $10.80.

Noice.

[Bum Crack]

8 legs for tonight.

Tippa, Townsend, Himmelberg and Finlayson anytime goal scorers

Saad, Parish, Ward and Perryman 15 or more disposals.

$15.75.

[Lightning McQueen]

8 legs for tonight.

Tippa, Townsend, Himmelberg and Finlayson anytime goal scorers

Saad, Parish, Ward and Perryman 15 or more disposals.

$15.75.

Tippa goes missing when Essendon lose, should still get a goal out of him though you'd think.

[daysofourlives]

Daniels, Snelling, Tippa anytime
GWS win
Under 102.5
20 @ $80

I have much more success with goal kickers around the $2 to $3 mark than the $1.20
I believe its wet there, scoreline could be 3-2 with these teams

[mighty_tiger_79]

Devon smith goal + 12+ disposals $3.50

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

[daysofourlives]

Daniels, Snelling, Tippa anytime
GWS win
Under 102.5
20 @ $80

I have much more success with goal kickers around the $2 to $3 mark than the $1.20
I believe its wet there, scoreline could be 3-2 with these teams

For clarification i meant 3-2 goals

[mighty_tiger_79]

Daniels, Snelling, Tippa anytime
GWS win
Under 102.5
20 @ $80

I have much more success with goal kickers around the $2 to $3 mark than the $1.20
I believe its wet there, scoreline could be 3-2 with these teams

For clarification i meant 3-2 goals

Yeah we know[emoji23]

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

[Bum Crack]

8 legs for tonight.

Tippa, Townsend, Himmelberg and Finlayson anytime goal scorers

Saad, Parish, Ward and Perryman 15 or more disposals.

$15.75.

**** you townsend

[Booney]

Please.

9 legger @ $89 last night, needed McGrath to get 20+ to round it off, he had 17 at 3/4 time. Got 1 in the last. 1 FFS!

[LMA]

Just checked my SB history, I've had 15 SGM's this year totalling $100 for 0 collects. Reads like the Crows season.

[Lightning McQueen]

Just checked my SB history, I've had 15 SGM's this year totalling $100 for 0 collects. Reads like the Crows season.

Due for a win then, load up again.

[Lightning McQueen]

Managed 10/11 on the Port game, Dusty needing 20 disposals was my only failure GRRR!!!

[Dutchy]

This thread shows how much Bookies love SGM's

[Trader]

This thread shows how much Bookies love SGM's

Backing short priced favourites to multi it up to a large collect is one of the worst moves you can make.

15 years ago when I was turning over substantial volume I played around with some mathematical models and it quickly became apparent how bad a strategy it was.

Lets say the average market is framed at 105% in head to head markets, and more like 108% in the exotic bets (players to kick a goal, get 20 disposals, etc).

If you do a 10 leg multi in a 108% market, all of a sudden the bookies edge has gone from 8% to 115% (1.08^10 = 2.15).
That is to say, if the price you are getting on your multi is 20:1, its chances of hitting are closer to 43:1.

You are far better off just finding a bet at long odds and having a crack at it. Both are unlikely, but at least you're only paying the 'vig' or 'juice' once, rather than 10 times on the same bet!

[Booney]

You're not coming to any of my parties.

[Lightning McQueen]

This thread shows how much Bookies love SGM's

Backing short priced favourites to multi it up to a large collect is one of the worst moves you can make.

15 years ago when I was turning over substantial volume I played around with some mathematical models and it quickly became apparent how bad a strategy it was.

Lets say the average market is framed at 105% in head to head markets, and more like 108% in the exotic bets (players to kick a goal, get 20 disposals, etc).

If you do a 10 leg multi in a 108% market, all of a sudden the bookies edge has gone from 8% to 115% (1.08^10 = 2.15).
That is to say, if the price you are getting on your multi is 20:1, its chances of hitting are closer to 43:1.

You are far better off just finding a bet at long odds and having a crack at it. Both are unlikely, but at least you're only paying the 'vig' or 'juice' once, rather than 10 times on the same bet!

At $5 a pop it gives me a reason to have some interest in a game along with adding some excitement as the game progresses, if I get all but one I get a bonus bet.

I know the odds are against me but when I jag one it covers me for a while, doing a one leg long shot is no fun, it's usually dead and buried by half time.