Albanese Labor Govt Watch

[RB]

Just saw a headline
Lambie facing a big challenge from Hanson jnr

I read that article which I didn't find convincing at all. I think Hanson Jr's too far behind.

The article suggested that Liberal preferences potentially favouring ON might be crucial. Importantly though, they won't be distributed in significant numbers until the 2nd Liberal is excluded, if that happens at all, which, if it does, may not be before ON is excluded. (Even then, I'm skeptical that preference flows from Liberal votes will flow all that hard to ON over Lambie.)

The Tas senate race is the most interesting though as the last two seats could be won by any two of Lambie, ALP 3rd and Liberal 2nd. Incredible to consider that the Liberals aren't assured of winning two seats.

I said yesterday that I thought ON were a chance of winning a couple of new seats (not including their existing one in Qld. where Roberts looks favoured). My reasoning was basically because most senate contests tend to end up 3:3 left:right, and 4:2 or 2:4 splits usually only happen once, at most, in any election. It's clear that the Coalition won't get even close to winning 3 seats anywhere, so someone has to fill the void, and notwithstanding their current low quota, ON are probably best placed to arrive on top (perhaps with say 0.8 quotas) when the distribution is complete.

Labor's situation has improved even further since then, but I still think ON are competitive in both Victoria and WA v 3rd ALP candidate given the preference sources available.

Confirmed today that Jacqui gets the fifth spot, with the second Liberal re-elected in sixth, which is good for Sussan Ley because it sounds like he voted for her.

[Jim05]

It's been the talk at the golf club.
And despite Labor saying its only a tax on that $3mill threshold the consensus is it will be lowered. Some of these guys were in the financial game and understand it far better than I and have started the shuffle to minimise any impact.

In order to pass senate Greens are wanting the 3 million cap reduced to 2 million.
They also want removal of limited recourse borrowing, but labor won’t agree to that. Maybe Labor offer another olive branch to Greens.

[MW]

Not a f..king chance it gets in at $2m cap.

[MW]

How about Albo go after the landlords.
Cap negative gearing on residential properties to only one, and anything after that pay full tax on. Would flood the market with residential properties and hopefully push prices down or at least flatten.
Combine that with a ban on foreign ownership at the same time.

[RB]

It's been the talk at the golf club.
And despite Labor saying its only a tax on that $3mill threshold the consensus is it will be lowered. Some of these guys were in the financial game and understand it far better than I and have started the shuffle to minimise any impact.

In order to pass senate Greens are wanting the 3 million cap reduced to 2 million.
They also want removal of limited recourse borrowing, but labor won’t agree to that. Maybe Labor offer another olive branch to Greens.

Alternatively this could be a handy off-ramp if Labor decide they want to abandon the proposal, for whatever reason.

[RB]

How about Albo go after the landlords.
Cap negative gearing on residential properties to only one, and anything after that pay full tax on. Would flood the market with residential properties and hopefully push prices down or at least flatten.
Combine that with a ban on foreign ownership at the same time.

I'd favour the quarantining of rental losses - à la capital gains - as a modest budget repair measure. I.e. you can only apply a net rental loss against future net rental gains. Not sure how likely that is to impact prices. But you can't get people to pay tax on rental income if they've made a loss.

Yes to banning foreign ownership (with very limited exceptions).

[Jimmy_041]

How about Albo go after the landlords.
Cap negative gearing on residential properties to only one, and anything after that pay full tax on. Would flood the market with residential properties and hopefully push prices down or at least flatten.
Combine that with a ban on foreign ownership at the same time.

I'd favour the quarantining of rental losses - à la capital gains - as a modest budget repair measure. I.e. you can only apply a net rental loss against future net rental gains. Not sure how likely that is to impact prices. But you can't get people to pay tax on rental income if they've made a loss.

Yes to banning foreign ownership (with very limited exceptions).

Do a Trump - anyone that bans us gets banned

[stan]

How about Albo go after the landlords.
Cap negative gearing on residential properties to only one, and anything after that pay full tax on. Would flood the market with residential properties and hopefully push prices down or at least flatten.
Combine that with a ban on foreign ownership at the same time.

The issues around negative gearing are the key to the housing market. It will definitely have an impact on housing prices as there will be far more stock on the market, which is the problem at hand.

Then again, all they have to do is keep ******* around with laws making it harder to evict ******* **** tenants ans you might see a flood of properties up for sale anyway.

[dedja]

Coalition is no more with the Nats and Libs going their own ways

Just joking …

[Jimmy_041]

How about Albo go after the landlords.
Cap negative gearing on residential properties to only one, and anything after that pay full tax on. Would flood the market with residential properties and hopefully push prices down or at least flatten.
Combine that with a ban on foreign ownership at the same time.

Considering the politicians are massive investors in property via negative gearing - good luck with that
A bit like Div 296 that wont apply to them until retirement
By the looks of it - it wont apply to state politicians ever

George Orwell was a visionary

[Brodlach]

How romantic, they’re back together

[Booney]

Antic doesn't get a portfolio.

Shadow Cabinet
Opposition Leader Sussan Ley
Treasury Ted O’Brien
Foreign Affairs Michaelia Cash
Finance James Paterson
Defence Angus Taylor
Attorney-General, Arts Julian Leeser
Home Affairs Andrew Hastie
Health, Aged Care, NDIS, Sport Anne Ruston
Education Jonathon Duniam
Social Services, Indigenous Kerrynne Liddle
Housing, Productivity Andrew Bragg
Employment, Small Business Tim Wilson
Agriculture David Littleproud
Infrastructure Bridget McKenzie
Trade Kevin Hogan
Energy, Emissions Dan Tehan
Environment, Youth Angie Bell
Resources Susan McDonald
Industry Alex Hawke
Communications, Women Melissa McIntosh
Electoral matters, Cities, Olympics James McGrath
Water, Emergencies Ross Cadell
Veterans Darren Chester

Shadow outer ministry
Assistant Treasurer Pat Conaghan
Defence Industry Jacinta Namijinpa Price
Pacific Jason Wood
Science, Cyber Melissa Price
Immigration Paul Scarr
Skills Scott Buchholz
Regional Communications Anne Webster

[RB]

Interesting that the Deputy Leader of the Nats in the Senate, Perin Davey, doesn't get a gig. Might have something to do with the fact that she has to pack her bags on 30 June. Which begs the question as to why is she still the Deputy Leader since she's about to check out.

[RB]

One Nation received a swing to them of 1.2%, but didn’t go close to winning any House seats. They won’t add to their existing Senate seat either.

I think that ON are a good chance at picking up a couple of Senate seats (off the Coaltion).

Haven’t got more than 0.5 of a quota in any state. Doesn’t mean that they can’t get up, but unlikely. Distributions in the Senate are a long and complicated saga, so probably won’t know for a while.

Confirmed that ON wins the final seat in WA (replacing the retiring Linda Reynolds of the Liberal Party).

ON however missed out in the other one I thought they looked good for - Victoria - getting to .814 quota but narrowly losing the race for the final seat to Labor's 3rd candidate who reached .869.

[dedja]

One Nation received a swing to them of 1.2%, but didn’t go close to winning any House seats. They won’t add to their existing Senate seat either.

I think that ON are a good chance at picking up a couple of Senate seats (off the Coaltion).

Haven’t got more than 0.5 of a quota in any state. Doesn’t mean that they can’t get up, but unlikely. Distributions in the Senate are a long and complicated saga, so probably won’t know for a while.

Confirmed that ON wins the final seat in WA (replacing the retiring Linda Reynolds of the Liberal Party).

ON however missed out in the other one I thought they looked good for - Victoria - getting to .814 quota but narrowly losing the race for the final seat to Labor's 3rd candidate who reached .869.

Good call ... also missed out in Tas.

[Jimmy_041]

One Nation received a swing to them of 1.2%, but didn’t go close to winning any House seats. They won’t add to their existing Senate seat either.

I think that ON are a good chance at picking up a couple of Senate seats (off the Coaltion).

Haven’t got more than 0.5 of a quota in any state. Doesn’t mean that they can’t get up, but unlikely. Distributions in the Senate are a long and complicated saga, so probably won’t know for a while.

Confirmed that ON wins the final seat in WA (replacing the retiring Linda Reynolds of the Liberal Party).

ON however missed out in the other one I thought they looked good for - Victoria - getting to .814 quota but narrowly losing the race for the final seat to Labor's 3rd candidate who reached .869.

Interesting that ON are taking seats off the Liberals when everyone is telling them to go back to the middle

[RB]

Losing one seat to ON v losing a multitude of seats to Labor - on balance I'd say that going back to the middle is the sensible approach.

[RB]

And now ON win another senate seat from the Coalition, this time off the Nats in NSW.

So that's 3 seats they've won off half a quota or less. It looked like Labor might win 3 in NSW, but as I said above, those 4:2 splits are difficult even in good years, and it looks like preferences have favoured ON in a big way.

[dedja]

Margin in Bradfield is down to a 3 vote lead for the Liberals.

A second recount is imminent, and perhaps a by-election.

[RB]

I don't think there can be a second recount (unless this one ends in a tie) so I think it'll head to a supplementary election unless one candidate pulls away, which doesn't seem likely.