by Rik E Boy » Thu Dec 01, 2005 1:09 pm
REB's Victorian 'Great Vic Hope' ratings
CARLTON
Absolutely no chance. With an untouchable coach, experienced players who don't want to play for the club and a largly untested base of youth, the Blues will have to wait at least five years before they can challenge again. The defence looks a real worry and having to rely on Fevola must be a concern for Pagan.
COLLINGWOOD
For some reason, I actually rate Collingwood. Their problems in the last few years have been injuries to key players like Anthony Rocca, Josh Fraser and Nathan Buckley. When this team has those blokes on the park players such as Chris Tarrant 'grow a leg' and become more regular contributors. Keep an eye out for Rusling this year. I think the Pies can go close to the eight next season but if Fraser and Rocca go down again, forget it. Remember that the Pies often get a juicy draw.
ESSENDON
Ever since the salary cap dismantled the awesome unit of 1999-2001, the Bombers have for some reason followed the Carlton path by picking up players such as Justin Murphy and Matty Allan. This year that theme is set to continue with the recylcing of Scott Camperole. Essendon's youngsters such as Stanton, Monfries, Laycock and Bradley got better with more gametime but this side still relies on Hird/Lucas/Lloyd/Fletcher. The Bombers have the softest draw going around next year but that may only get them to week one, week two at best in September. Heartbreak looms for this proud club.
GEELONG
The so-called Geelong curse is bullshit and the Cats will win the premiership within two years. Geelong has been steadily improving ever since Bomber Thompson came on board in the near disasterous year of 1999. The current generation of Cats will succeed where the 90's outfits have failed because they are not so reliant on a handful of stars, have a better defence and don't have to combat outfits of the calibre of 80's Hawthorn, 90's West Coast or the all conquering (salary cap cheating) Blues team of 1995. The defence is tried and tested, the midfield rotation is developing nicely and the lack of scoring power is a myth, the Cats led the league after 10 rounds in scoring. The Cats need a better run with injury to make their mark and will do so sooner rather than later.
HAWTHORN
You get the feeling that Clarkson is keeping the seat warm for a certain club legend down at Hawkland. Hawthorn have gone for their second consecutive clean out it seems so at least a few more years out the September action for the Hawkers I feel. Their game plan truly sucks. You need more skillful players, not less to progress with a high possession game plan. If the Hawks can straighten up then they will be on their way. Three years away from the eight.
KANGAROOS
Coach Laidley and the recriuting team down at Arden Street have fallen for the trap of overrating thier list. Filling the ranks with players such as Jade Rawlings, hot on the heels of the laughable acquistion of Lance Picconie is not a good look. They were found wanting against most decent opposition last season and they had a fair run with injuries as well. It's fine to beat Collingwood, Hawthorn and Carlton twice but those teams won't be there in September. The loss at home to an out of sorts Port summed it up really. Expect this lot to miss the eight next season. The wilderness beckons.
MELBOURNE
THE most puzzling team in the AFL. On their day the Demons are awesome, only for them to be downright pathetic the next week. With Byron Pickett and Brent Maloney in the side, they've finally got some mongrel. If Robertson's form can hold up and Neitz can get some fitness, you can expect an improved input from Green and Miller. Coach Daniher has been let off lightly considering the talent they had, but the draw did them no favours late last season. A genuine chance of winning the flag if they can become more consistent.
RICHMOND
On the way up at last. Richmond are about to make their mark but still have plenty of dodgy players on their list. A genuine flag chance can't be so reliant on one player as they proved to be when Nathan Brown had that horrible injury last year. With players like Delido, Tambling, Coughlan, Tuck and Krakeour though, the Tiges have pace and grunt in the midfield to deliver the ball to Richardson, Simmonds and Brown. Will strongly push for the eight next year but probably finish 9th again.
ST KILDA
Has the window closed on the Saints? At full strength they are one of the few teams that this Cat fan fears. However the weakness in ruck, and dwindling resources in defense may undermine the team that has just fallen short over the last two seasons. However if Kosi, Riewoldt, Hamill all remain fit then most teams will struggle to cover all three options, partularly with goalsneaks like Milne trying to snaffle the crumbs. The Saints will be doing it for Harvey but maybe this ship has sailed.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Bullies are so close they can sniff it I reckon. Dead stiff not to make a surprise appearance in the eight last year they will be a part of September this season. One of the quickest outfits going around they will welcome back Luke Darcy to the fold and have that necessary mix of youth and experience to be a success in the near future. No longer so reliant on the old firm, these dogs have grown a leg and now their bite is worse than their bark.
REALISTIC CHANCES AT THE FLAG
GEELONG
MELBOURNE
ST KILDA (still)
NOT TOO FAR AWAY
WESTERN BULLDOGS
RICHMOND
FORGET IT
The Rest.
REB's EIGHT (MINOR ROUND)
1. WEST COAST
2. GEELONG
3. SYDNEY
4. MELBOURNE
5. ADELAIDE
6. WESTERN BULLDOGS
7. PORT
8. ST KILDA
regards,
REB