Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[Brodlach]

Yogi is one of those horses that always runs home late.

[helicopterking]

I’m going to have something on all of Luke Currie rides, multi them all up and back him for the jockey challenge.
The Cup
Will work around 3,7,9

[Bum Crack]

Yogi is one of those horses that always runs home late.

Yeah but it doesn't always time it's run home. Bloody frustrating horse to follow.

[JK]

I’m going to have something on all of Luke Currie rides, multi them all up and back him for the jockey challenge.
The Cup
Will work around 3,7,9

Big fan of Currie, have had a small go at McEvoy in the JC though

[Booney]

Finche from Yogi with Casterton adding value to exotics.

[OnSong]

My tips for Mooney Valley tomorrow on Manikato night:

MR1: 9 Grandview Avenue. Market has Sacred Sword at $7 and Grandview Avenue beat SS last start with an eye catcher, so $26 is good EW value.
MR2: Like 8 Pierrocity just for the name but another at odds here is Unbeknown, flew home at Warrnambool last start, similar setup to MV and $16 looks appealing.
MR3: 1,2,3,4 & 7 my numbers, I've followed 3 Iconoclasm this spring, looks a good shot here with 2 Kiwia EW value.
MR4: 11 Noumea was beaten a length 3rd last start but hit the line well late and has competed well in similar company previously. EW value @ $21
MR5: 9 Written Choice is a class runner, will be in the finish at at $5, that's not bad shopping.
MR6: 3 Ulmann was one I followed last spring, plenty of ability and Damian Lane will get the best out of it at $9.50
MR7: 1, 4, 10, 12, 14 are my numbers, with 10 Houtzen and 14 Sunlight my main chances, while Voodoo Lad has to break through at some point. Spright impressive in the Moir a few weeks back, as was Brave Smash.
MR8: 11 Black Sail travelled three wide the trip last start and won, which it may need to do at MV, ala Viddora. Lane will boot it home at $5.50

[LPH]

26 & 27 / 10 / 2018 (Posted 8:10am Friday 26/10/18)

The Caulfield Carnival is done, the Mooney Valley Carnival this week & the VRC Carnival the following week. Don’t you just love this time of year? (Did I just ask a Bruce-ism type rhetorical question?). Of course we do, don’t we?

As my previews have been getting longer by the week, this type of ‘self-indulgent diatribe’ (probably best reserved for a ‘BS Ad’ in prime time) is becoming dire. Still behind 18% on Outlay.

Previews can initially wait this week. The great Winx is going for an unprecedented 4th WS Cox Plate this Saturday & an attempt at Immortality.

Driving home this week, through a lack of a suitable alternative & an obvious need to avail myself of unintelligent ramblings, I endured the ‘Heckle & Jeckle’ Footy Show (rather than the Titled ‘Sports Show’). As such, I heard ‘John West’ mutter a statement regarding Winx & her place in the ‘Order of Australian Equine Status’. Rowe (that authority on all things racing) made statements like; “… I rate the Melbourne Cup as a superior horse race to the Cox Plate…” & “… for Me, Winx is behind Makybe Diva, Phar Lap & Black Caviar as the best Australian horses in history…” Blah, blah, blah. Regardless of whether we agree or disagree with the fat man’s statements, it does make one ponder who is the best, doesn’t it?

FWIW, I personally feel that the Cox Plate is the TRUE indicator of greatness due to the fairness & consistency of the weights scale. That said, it does provide a huge advantage to the juveniles because they carry significantly less weight, with the Fillies carrying 48.5 kgs & the Colts 49 kgs.

The Melbourne Cup is a handicap & as such, the weight scale is unfair. Case in point; Super Impose in 1991. He ran an enormous 4th carrying 59.5 kgs as Top weight that year to be beaten by Let’s Elope, carrying just 49 kgs - & there are plenty of other examples.

I think Makybe Diva carried 56.5 kgs in her 3rd Cup Victory (still ½ kgs under WFA). She did win the Cox Plate @ WFA & also the BMW in Sydney. One could certainly mount an argument in support of her, but for mine, her overall record is far less impressive than Winx’s – 3 Cups aside.

FWIW, if Winx does win her 4th Cox Plate, she just has to go undisputed No.1 IMHO. Despite ‘Crowie’ putting her 4th! She’s dominated Group 1 Racing for years. It will be exciting to watch on Saturday, despite the poor 8 horse field.

So to this week’s Preview…

The Valley, Friday Night – MR 7 – The Manikato Stakes 1200m

A high quality field this year, with a number of overseas horses in the mix. There’s been a heap of money for US Navy Flag, now into 6/1. The weight scale for this race suggests the 3yr old filly Sunlight has a big advantage, particularly if she can ‘get a breather’ in the lead. Her gate & racing pattern, suggests she’ll be going like a ‘scalded cat’ in front here.

That will have 2 possible outcomes I think, either; she gets it all her own way & they just can’t catch her, or, it sets it up for those horses back in the pack ready to utilise the camber of the Valley track around the turn & into the straight, running right past her. I would think she gets some ‘company’ in the lead with the likes of Houtzen & Jungle Edge going forward, as well as Invincible Star.

I’m looking for a ‘run on’ horse that’s about midfield, in the ‘ruck’, getting on the back of another between the 500m & 300m ready to pounce in the short straight. It is the short straight here at The Valley, that always worries me. It’s not conducive to back markers making a heap of ground late & there is often a ‘leader’s bias’ on this track. Let’s face it, Mooney Valley is a ‘country track’ in the city, & as such, you need to be in a good spot at the top of the straight or you’re ‘cooked’.

There’s a $50K Trifecta Jackpot here, so that’s certainly worth having a crack.

I have settled on Voodoo Lad, simply because it’s an open race. The Powered Price of $18 is over the odds for this runner IMHO, I think he runs top 5, so I took the $4.60 the Place early in the Week. He’s 2 from 2 Track/Distance, Placed 9 from 12 over 6 furlongs, I’ve got him a $10 & $3.20 chance, so he’s overs for mine. Happy to go with him despite the openness of the race.

Backing: Voodoo Lad 1 x 5 Units
Trifecta: 4, 8, 10 / 1, 2, 4, 8, 9, 10, 14 / Field (25%) 5 Units

The Valley, Saturday – MR 9 – The WS Cox Plate – 2040m

Here it is. A chance at History & Immortality. Much of the nation, race goer & novice alike, all hoping for the mare to win again. I pose the question; In Racing, is there room for sentiment or what might control the heart? Personally, I would answer by replying; “No, it all comes down to my wallet.”

So I have already done the unthinkable, the unmentionable, the ultimate betrayal - I’ve backed against her!
Does that make me ‘Un-Australian’?
Perhaps. But the $12 Boosted on the Godolphin runner Benbatl was too tempting to ignore. I’ve taken him for 3 Units the Win. I think there is value in the Pick 4 too, having Winx as a ‘stand-out’ to run 2nd.

Look, I think she’ll win, but I can’t help chasing the ‘value’. So I’m willing to ‘Gamble Responsibly’. The disappointing 8 horse field should see her beat them, but risking a small loss for a better return is what this game is all about, isn’t it?

Backing: Benbatl straight out for 3 Units
Exacta: 1 / 6 for 2 Units
Pick 4: 1, 2, 4 / 6 / Field / Field (55%) for 5 Units

The Valley, Saturday – MR 8 – The Mooney Valley Gold Cup – 2500m

So many variables in this race. Is there a Melbourne Cup place getter here? Big Duke has burned me this Spring. It appears I had over-estimated this bloke’s ability. He may well burn me here by winning, but I can’t risk any more on him – hasn’t performed.

I have only one word; Godolphin.

They are winning everything. Prize Money was OK first up in the Herbert Power. He died on his run behind the unbelievable Yucatan but he’s now had a start here & I’m staggered by the $8 the Place on Ubet.

This time last Spring, The Taj Mahal was a serious threat in all races he raced in. Is he the same horse 12 months later? The gate is a concern here. This race appears to be another battle between Waller & Weir. The classic Sydney v Melbourne (the ‘Bool) rivalry. Concede Waller probably holds the key to the race. Patrick Erin is an under-rated stayer but the weight might tell on him late. Egg Tart is another who could win this race – she ran 2nd in the Doomben Cup. I think she’s short enough at the ‘Each Way Quote’ of 8/1 though. I think she can win here.

It wouldn’t shock to see Tosen Basil go close too. He hasn’t hit the ‘heights’ a number of good judges thought he was capable of. If ever he’s going to win a good race, this is it. He ran well in the Underwood behind Homesman. Don’t dismiss him here – that’s good form.

Backing: Egg Tart 2 x 6 Units; Prize Money 3 Units Place
Box Trifecta: 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 13 (35%) for 4 Units

The Valley, Saturday – MR 7 – The Crystal Mile – 1600m

What an interesting race at set weights. A good battle for the early lead in the race. Siege of Quebec ran a good race last time for 3rd at Caulfield. Gai might have a couple of horses ready to take some riches from the Carnival. Her Derby favourite is a good animal & she has some others too; Shoomukh goes alright. Siege of Quebec is far too short for me. I’m with Sovereign Nation. He's 3rd Up, 1 from 1 Track & Distance, good gate to choose from the jump – I’m thinking he’ll go back. This isn’t an overly ‘deep’ Mile race IMHO & the Powered $15 & $3.50 is my preferred betting price.

Concede Cliff’s Edge will be hard to beat, as will It’s Somewhat - ran 3rd here last year so not without a hope. Prized Icon is a Group 1 winner despite struggling to win only 2 other races from 30.

Backing: Sovereign Nation 1 x 5 Units
Pick 4: 1, 3, 8 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9 / Field / Field (5%) for 4 Units

The Valley, Saturday – MR 5 – The Australia Stakes – 1300m

I’m keen to follow one here in the Philip Stokes colt; More Than Exceed. Read an interesting article this week on the plight of Caulfield Trainers being ‘evicted’ to Pakenham, of which Stokes is one, having just moved to Melbourne himself. He’s a good trainer & building some success over there. Worth a little wager, even if the colours aren’t my cup of tea, $12 Powered & $3.30 is fine.

Backing: More than Exceed 1 x 4 Units

Three you go Lads. I find this meeting difficult each year, so prepared to ‘load up’ next week when we move to Headquarters. Enjoy watching the Mare making History tomorrow.
Derby Day is my favourite Race Day of the year next Saturday. Endeavouring to fill the coffers ready for an assault on Tuesday, seeking the Exotics in the Cup.
Until then…

[mighty_tiger_79]

I loved Derby Day, but it seems to have dropped away as a meeting from its high peak.


I'm a little confused as to why there is only a small field for the Cox Plate, and why some horses were left out. Clearly short memories of those in charge..

[Lightning McQueen]

Can't Resist!
Purely Speculative:
Geelong Cup Pick 4:
7, 9 / 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13, 15 / Field

I think I have a Gambling Problem...
Gamble Responsibly...

It's only a gambling problem if you're losing.

[Lightning McQueen]

What did I say about Godolphin?
They are here to take everything!
I will be betting AGAINST Winx next week, I think - could be some value in the exotics taking her as a Stand Out to run 2nd.

That's my Willie Pike bet, whenever he's on the fave a mate and I go Field/Willie Pike/Field, it comes up pretty often.

[Booney]

Gawler Cup Friday -

Lady Silhouette the one to beat, Arkham Knight the one to do it after a just going down to Lady Silhouette at the Parks last start, gets 1.5kg in his favor this time round.

Manikato Stakes - Actually on my bucket list as part of a Cox Plate weekend, perhaps 2019 will be the year.

Malaguerra owes me nothing and I'll be on it again tonight. Won 5 of 7 first up, gets the rail run and will be in the finish.

Box it up 2,3,8,10 and 11 for some value, Tulip has had 5 runs at the Valley for 2 wins and 2 second places.

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Sunlight to win
3,8,10,14 in the multis

[Spargo]

Houtzen will do me tonight.

[OnSong]

Gawler Cup Friday -

Lady Silhouette the one to beat, Arkham Knight the one to do it after a just going down to Lady Silhouette at the Parks last start, gets 1.5kg in his favor this time round.

Manikato Stakes - Actually on my bucket list as part of a Cox Plate weekend, perhaps 2019 will be the year.

Malaguerra owes me nothing and I'll be on it again tonight. Won 5 of 7 first up, gets the rail run and will be in the finish.

Box it up 2,3,8,10 and 11 for some value, Tulip has had 5 runs at the Valley for 2 wins and 2 second places.

Nice work on the Cup, may as well follow your Manikato tip with that form

[OnSong]

Houtzen will do me tonight.

Gee, pretty unlucky in the straight

[Spargo]

Houtzen will do me tonight.

Gee, pretty unlucky in the straight

He still hasn’t got out!

[Brodlach]

Houtzen will do me tonight.

Gee, pretty unlucky in the straight

He still hasn’t got out!

Very unlucky

[Brodlach]

Massive bias to the leaders tonight, is the rail in the same position tomorrow?

[OnSong]

Massive bias to the leaders tonight, is the rail in the same position tomorrow?

Great question.

Not a terrible evening for me. Written Choice at $5, Iconoclasm at $2.

Loved the run of Ulmann, will love the long straight at Flemington.

Felt Houtzen was stiff not to run top 3.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Rail in same spot - True