PAFC 2025

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MW
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by MW »

The finals win/loss record argument always amuses me.
If you make finals, at best you are likely to be 1-1, or 0-1, or 2-1 if you are lucky. Only winning the flag can you be 3-0 or 3-1 in finals.
So odds are most coaches would either have break even or losing finals records even though their regular season win/loss % would be well above 50%
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by dedja »

MW wrote:The finals win/loss record argument always amuses me.
If you make finals, at best you are likely to be 1-1, or 0-1, or 2-1 if you are lucky. Only winning the flag can you be 3-0 or 3-1 in finals.
So odds are most coaches would either have break even or losing finals records even though their regular season win/loss % would be well above 50%
On its own with no context … 100% agree.

Preliminary Finals: 0-4, so nearly half of all finals loses.
Grand Finals: 0
Premierships: 0

This is from a club who announced that they would win 3 flags in 5 years, granted that the blame for that ridiculous boast shouldn’t be pinned on the coach.

It’s also not his fault that the club kept reappointing him … who in their right mind would quit a job that they love and are handsomely remunerated.
Dunno, I’m just an idiot.
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by Lightning McQueen »

dedja wrote:
MW wrote:The finals win/loss record argument always amuses me.
If you make finals, at best you are likely to be 1-1, or 0-1, or 2-1 if you are lucky. Only winning the flag can you be 3-0 or 3-1 in finals.
So odds are most coaches would either have break even or losing finals records even though their regular season win/loss % would be well above 50%
On its own with no context … 100% agree.

Preliminary Finals: 0-4, so nearly half of all finals loses.
Grand Finals: 0
Premierships: 0

This is from a club who announced that they would win 3 flags in 5 years, granted that the blame for that ridiculous boast shouldn’t be pinned on the coach.

It’s also not his fault that the club kept reappointing him … who in their right mind would quit a job that they love and are handsomely remunerated.
The "club" didn't announce it, the CEO stated it was a goal. Yes, it was a ridiculous statement but was also twisted to make sound worse, just another list of things Port supprters have to take on the chin as it is forever mentioned.

Your 2nd sentence hits the nail on the head, Kenny loves working, he loves his playing group. Although I'm glad he's finishing up and I'm bitter about a couple of premierships that we should've owned, I can't see things getting any better any time soon, for someone who grew up not barracking for Port they are a hard club to keep supporting.
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by mighty_tiger_79 »

Lightning McQueen wrote:
dedja wrote:
MW wrote:The finals win/loss record argument always amuses me.
If you make finals, at best you are likely to be 1-1, or 0-1, or 2-1 if you are lucky. Only winning the flag can you be 3-0 or 3-1 in finals.
So odds are most coaches would either have break even or losing finals records even though their regular season win/loss % would be well above 50%
On its own with no context … 100% agree.

Preliminary Finals: 0-4, so nearly half of all finals loses.
Grand Finals: 0
Premierships: 0

This is from a club who announced that they would win 3 flags in 5 years, granted that the blame for that ridiculous boast shouldn’t be pinned on the coach.

It’s also not his fault that the club kept reappointing him … who in their right mind would quit a job that they love and are handsomely remunerated.
The "club" didn't announce it, the CEO stated it was a goal. Yes, it was a ridiculous statement but was also twisted to make sound worse, just another list of things Port supprters have to take on the chin as it is forever mentioned.

Your 2nd sentence hits the nail on the head, Kenny loves working, he loves his playing group. Although I'm glad he's finishing up and I'm bitter about a couple of premierships that we should've owned, I can't see things getting any better any time soon, for someone who grew up not barracking for Port they are a hard club to keep supporting.
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by Trader »

dedja wrote:Are Port in a much better place than when he arrived … on field?

Year before he started - 2012: 14th 5-16-1 78.9%
Last Year as coach* - 2025: 13th 8-14-0 79.0%

* one match remaining

Coach: 2013-2025, 13 years
Finals: W6 L9
Grand Finals: 0
Premierships: 0
Don't forget he's also left us with the great position of not having a first-round draft pick, and a reduced soft cap.
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by wenchbarwer »

Trader wrote:
dedja wrote:Are Port in a much better place than when he arrived … on field?

Year before he started - 2012: 14th 5-16-1 78.9%
Last Year as coach* - 2025: 13th 8-14-0 79.0%

* one match remaining

Coach: 2013-2025, 13 years
Finals: W6 L9
Grand Finals: 0
Premierships: 0
Don't forget he's also left us with the great position of not having a first-round draft pick, and a reduced soft cap.
That's on Jason Cripps
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by Booney »

Soft cap goes up $750k next year, that's why it was deferred until now.
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by Brodlach »

Booney wrote:Soft cap goes up $750k next year, that's why it was deferred until now.
They wouldn’t have known that back in 2021
July 11th 2012....
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by another grub »

Sack ken
mal wrote: I like to think of us as an allied team
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by Booney »

Brodlach wrote:
Booney wrote:Soft cap goes up $750k next year, that's why it was deferred until now.
They wouldn’t have known that back in 2021
They did in late 2024 and that's why it wasn't put in last years or this years.
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by Booney »

Retiring Port Adelaide great Travis Boak started signing autographs at his last training at 10.27am.

He stopped to attend a team meeting at 11.33am.

Then he re-emerged to sign for those still waiting at 11.55am.

He finally finished about 12.35pm.

Just under 2 hours overall.
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by another grub »

How did Muntbury go last nite?
mal wrote: I like to think of us as an allied team
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by Booney »

another grub wrote:How did Muntbury go last nite?
About as well as all of Mooney's work. You know something isn't funny when Maher hits the play button on his own fake laughter.
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by wenchbarwer »

Shazza Dittmar>>>>>>Muntberry
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by RB »

MW wrote:The finals win/loss record argument always amuses me.
If you make finals, at best you are likely to be 1-1, or 0-1, or 2-1 if you are lucky. Only winning the flag can you be 3-0 or 3-1 in finals.
So odds are most coaches would either have break even or losing finals records even though their regular season win/loss % would be well above 50%
I tested your theory on folks who've coached between 250 and 350 AFL/VFL games (to compare Ken with his peers).

Finals win percentage:
21 - Bob Rose
40 - Ken Hinkley
43 - Robert Walls
45 - Phonse Kyne
47 - Mark Williams
50 - Bill Stephen
50 - Brad Scott
50 - Reg Hickey
50 - John Longmire
54 - Luke Beveridge
55 - John Northey
56 - Paul Roos
58 - Mark Thompson
64 - Denis Pagan
65 - Malcolm Blight
81 - John Worrall

Alternatively, we can do overall win percentage less finals win percentage:
37 - Bob Rose
18 - Ken Hinkley
15 - Phonse Kyne
13 - John Longmire
11 - Reg Hickey
8 - Mark Williams
4 - Robert Walls
4 - Mark Thompson
3 - Luke Beveridge
2 - Brad Scott
(5) - John Northey
(5) - Paul Roos
(10) - Malcolm Blight
(12) - Denis Pagan
(17) - Bill Stephen
(21) - John Worrall

So after Bob Rose who had a truly minging finals record, Kenny is right near the bottom. I suspect it would be worse if you discount non-knockout matches.

I think when you factor in Kenny's record in important minor round games, and games on the home stretch when finals are looming, the pattern is pretty clear.

Having said that, a much bigger indictment on Ken is not so much his finals W-L record, though bad, but the way his team have absolutely shat the bed in finals, particularly after those first couple of years, often against objectively weaker teams, and at home.

That is, the level of performance his team have repeatedly served up in September has further contributed to (accurate in my view) perceptions of his ability to coach a team to win when it counts.
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by Booney »

He's had several squads full of talent and his game style with those squads meant he would regularly lead the team to victory unless the system was under pressure on the big stage ( minor round or finals ) or when pitted against the best sides ( deep into the finals ). It's not that hard a nut to crack.
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by Mr Beefy »

RB wrote:
MW wrote:The finals win/loss record argument always amuses me.
If you make finals, at best you are likely to be 1-1, or 0-1, or 2-1 if you are lucky. Only winning the flag can you be 3-0 or 3-1 in finals.
So odds are most coaches would either have break even or losing finals records even though their regular season win/loss % would be well above 50%
I tested your theory on folks who've coached between 250 and 350 AFL/VFL games (to compare Ken with his peers).

Finals win percentage:
21 - Bob Rose
40 - Ken Hinkley
43 - Robert Walls
45 - Phonse Kyne
47 - Mark Williams
50 - Bill Stephen
50 - Brad Scott
50 - Reg Hickey
50 - John Longmire
54 - Luke Beveridge
55 - John Northey
56 - Paul Roos
58 - Mark Thompson
64 - Denis Pagan
65 - Malcolm Blight
81 - John Worrall

Alternatively, we can do overall win percentage less finals win percentage:
37 - Bob Rose
18 - Ken Hinkley
15 - Phonse Kyne
13 - John Longmire
11 - Reg Hickey
8 - Mark Williams
4 - Robert Walls
4 - Mark Thompson
3 - Luke Beveridge
2 - Brad Scott
(5) - John Northey
(5) - Paul Roos
(10) - Malcolm Blight
(12) - Denis Pagan
(17) - Bill Stephen
(21) - John Worrall

So after Bob Rose who had a truly minging finals record, Kenny is right near the bottom. I suspect it would be worse if you discount non-knockout matches.

I think when you factor in Kenny's record in important minor round games, and games on the home stretch when finals are looming, the pattern is pretty clear.

Having said that, a much bigger indictment on Ken is not so much his finals W-L record, though bad, but the way his team have absolutely shat the bed in finals, particularly after those first couple of years, often against objectively weaker teams, and at home.

That is, the level of performance his team have repeatedly served up in September has further contributed to (accurate in my view) perceptions of his ability to coach a team to win when it counts.
Geez, you've cherry picked some stats there. I can see why you restricted the games coached between 250 and 350. Once you get over 350, some who would be considered successful coaches, have a bigger difference in their stats than Ken in that second list. eg Jock McHale, Chris Scott
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by RB »

Cherry picked the stats? Fair dinkum, he's coached 296 games and I included everyone since 1897 who's coached between 250 and 350. Not sure how you'd prefer I go about it.

But OK, let's do everyone who's coached at least 200 AFL/VFL games, which is 48 blokes.

On the first measure (finals win percentage) he's ranked equal 7th worst out of 48.

On the second measure (overall win percentage less finals win percentage) he's ranked outright 7th worst out of 48.

I'll let folks draw their own conclusions.

You are free to undertake further analysis. My source - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/coaches ... s_idx.html
Last edited by RB on Thu Aug 21, 2025 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by am Bays »

Congrats to Rammy who gets his chance to make his AFL debut tomorrow night.

Brilliant kid, so happy he gets his chance.
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Re: PAFC 2025

Post by Armchair expert »

My thoughts on Ken


Ken Hinkley has proven himself to be the greatest Port Adelaide coach of all time. From a club built on tradition and success across both SANFL and AFL eras, Hinkley has guided Port into the modern game with resilience, consistency, and a relentless drive for excellence. He has navigated the toughest competition in the country, kept Port a consistent finals contender, and built a culture of belief and unity that reflects the true Port Adelaide spirit. More than just wins, his leadership has defined a new era of Port Adelaide football, ensuring the club’s proud history continues to thrive in the national spotlight. No coach has had a greater impact on shaping both the identity and the future of Port Adelaide than Ken Hinkley.
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