The South Australian Political Landscape

[Pseudo]

Amazing the amount of people who were seduced* by Pauline.

*

I don’t think they were seduced by her as such, sure she has a small weird cult following but feel like the bulk are disenfranchised Liberal voters who feel they have no one else to vote for.
I was once a rusted on Libs voter but haven’t done for some time and as someone who will never ever vote Labor I just find it easier to scrawl a cock and two balls rather than vote ON or others though

I thought about casting a formal vote for Pauline's candidate for shits and giggles, in the knowledge that the Labor candidate was a monty to win. However standing in the booth with the pencil in my hand it was just easier to scrawl the cock and balls.

And yes, 20% of the first preferences going to ON is amazing.

[morell]

Far out the self aggrandising Orange shit is really getting to be too much. Maybe a seat or two in the assembly and a couple of unrepresentative swill on the Council because that's literally what's it designed and setup to do does not equal some kind of massive change in the policts of the state.

It is as it always has been since 1900. Two parties in SA, Labor and not-Labor. And when it's down to two, there are way way way more Labor than not-Labor.

The One Nation vote was simply disillusioned old white dudes that are stroppy they're not getting their way and had nowhere else to vote because they knew the Libs were stuffed. A split of the conservative vote doesn't mean there are more conservatives.

One Nation have no state policy. They're a protest moment in time. They will disappear again once (if?) the Libs sort their shit out. Which if they stick with Hurn, who is seemingly pretty astute and not a criminal or drug addict, they might be half a chance

[Brodlach]

I don’t think they have started counting pre poll votes, I would think ALP will be favored by them

95% of polling booths and 62.7% of early voting centres (pre-polls) have been counted (these are percentages of the total booths, not percentage of votes)

I was looking at the ABC coverage, they seem to be way behind although it say it’s updated regularly

[RB]

Amazing the amount of people who were seduced* by Pauline.

*

I don’t think they were seduced by her as such, sure she has a small weird cult following but feel like the bulk are disenfranchised Liberal voters who feel they have no one else to vote for.
I was once a rusted on Libs voter but haven’t done for some time and as someone who will never ever vote Labor I just find it easier to scrawl a cock and two balls rather than vote ON or others though

Not sure about that - Primary votes (51.9% counted)

0.9% overall swing away from ALP

But look at these electorates:
Elizabeth - 14.7% swing away from ALP
Giles - 14.5% swing away from ALP
Kauna - 7% swing away from ALP
Light - 18.1% swing away from ALP
Mawson - 5.6% swing away from ALP
Pt Adelaide - 7.1% swing away from ALP
Taylor - 10.5% swing away from ALP

There may be some local reasons which I dont know (or care) about but for such a landslide, Labor would be very worried they got less Primary vote and those electorates had massive contrary swings

I take a bit of a different view.

Given the large increase in the overall number of candidates, I don't think the ALP would be especially worried about a 0.9% swing away (which equals the swing to the Greens coincidentally). In fact given the various factors they'd have to be happy with that I think.

Additionally, you could list a heap of seats with primary vote swings towards Labor, e.g. Waite swung over 25% to Labor. See also Newland, Davenport, Kavel, and some other generally leafy seats.

The seats you listed above are, I guess, the sort of Labor-held seats which could eventually go the way of ON if similar swings occur again next time around. So I suppose that highlights potential future battlegrounds. While there was a 2PP ALP-Liberal swing in Labor's favour, it's sort of irrelevant when the Liberals are doing so poorly and if ON don't flame out, maybe they could pinch a couple of these seats off Labor next time.

But I'd be highly surprised if even the most pessimistic in the Labor camp were 'very worried' based on the above.

[dedja]

I’m in the State seat Morialta (formerly Coles), and Federal seat of Sturt.

In the 35 years I’ve lived here, Labor has only held Morialta/Coles for one term until this State election, and never in Sturt until last year’s Federal election. It’s now a Labor in both.

[Booney]

Amazing the amount of people who were seduced* by Pauline.

*

I don’t think they were seduced by her as such, sure she has a small weird cult following but feel like the bulk are disenfranchised Liberal voters who feel they have no one else to vote for.
I was once a rusted on Libs voter but haven’t done for some time and as someone who will never ever vote Labor I just find it easier to scrawl a cock and two balls rather than vote ON or others though

Rich old white Australians decided if they were just that or racist too.


That's all that happened.

[dedja]

There’s a lot of people worried about cost of living, including energy costs, housing and immigration, amongst other things, and rightly or wrongly, feel that the major political parties have let them down.

People may laugh at the seriousness of One Nation and their lack of genuine policies, but if people feel that the majors don’t have the answers, then why not go to the dark side is probably what they’re thinking.

Doesn’t necessarily make them racists.

Labor, Libs and the Nats need to take notice of what’s happening.