Abbott/Liberal Govt Watch

[Gozu]

What were the interest rates again when John Howard was Treasurer?

November 1977 9.88% February 1983 12.5%

Okay, I read somewhere they were the highest they've ever been.

[Jimmy_041]

I go back to my original statement this morning
A pig that should never be allowed to be President of Australia

I still remember the night he won the election and a supporter yelled out:
"You can take Keating out of the western suburbs, but you cant take the western suburbs out of Keating"
He visibly cringed - it was gold

The unfortunate result of him winning an election is that he now thinks he has the right to talk about economics, and all he does is try to rewrite his own history
Even Bob Hawke has turned on him

[redandblack]

And, Gozu, his description of an opponent:

"He's a shiver looking for a spine to run up"

[Jimmy_041]

What were the interest rates again when John Howard was Treasurer?

November 1977 9.88% February 1983 12.5%

Okay, I read somewhere they were the highest they've ever been.

I recall they were around 21% - we were getting up to 25% on the short term money market at that time

[Gozu]

What were the interest rates again when John Howard was Treasurer?

November 1977 9.88% February 1983 12.5%

Okay, I read somewhere they were the highest they've ever been.

I was right 21% under Howard:

The 1982 wages explosion—wages rose 16 per cent across the country—resulted in stagflation; unemployment touched double-digits and inflation peaked at 12.5% (official interest rates peaked at 21%).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Howar ... .931983.29

[Jimmy_041]

Interest rates had risen in Australia from about 10% at the end of 1975 to 12.5% at the end of the Fraser years. So, after 8 years government, Mr Fraser had seen an interest rate rise of about 2%, from a high base.

Rates then kept rising under Hawke and Keating, reaching 17.0% in 1990. Keating then "did some good things in reforming the economy'

The result was that in the next 3 years, interest rates had halved, to 8.5% by Sept 1996.

Thought that was worth a mention

Oh, I agree that Keating's speech was punctuated with lots of 'you knows' and other similar things. Mr Abbott's is punctuated with constant ums and ahs.

The difference is that it's always worth putting up with Keatings speech blemishes, because you know a pearler will crop up any moment.

With Mr Abbott, all you get is the ums and ahs.

So, you are saying Keating was responsible for the interest rates halving by Sept 1996?

Only with those who say them rising to 17% was his fault.

OK - the 17% rate was his fault, and so was the recession "we had to have" that caused interest rates to halve by 1996.

[Jimmy_041]

What were the interest rates again when John Howard was Treasurer?

November 1977 9.88% February 1983 12.5%

Okay, I read somewhere they were the highest they've ever been.

I was right 21% under Howard:

The 1982 wages explosion—wages rose 16 per cent across the country—resulted in stagflation; unemployment touched double-digits and inflation peaked at 12.5% (official interest rates peaked at 21%).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Howar ... .931983.29

Yep - the unions went to town on wages in the early '80's but it was a pyrrhic victory as unemployment also blew out.
But unemployment has always been a secondary concern to union officials as they always kept their jobs

[DOC]

I am quoting home loan rates as per what started this, that is, people paying x per cent on their home loans.

[DOC]

As for official cash rates, I believe the daily cash record is 53.5% on August 19 1982 with the 90 day rate hitting 21% or better between April 6 1982 until May 5 1982.

[redandblack]

I get it.

Interest rates up with Keating Treasurer:- Keating's fault.

Interest rates down with Keating Treasurer:- Keating's fault, not credit.

Interest rates through the roof with Howard Treasurer:_ Unions fault.

Keating = pig.

Thanks, Jimmy, that makes it clearer.

[Jimmy_041]

Nope - in fact, if you really read what I wrote, I asked if you want Keating to get the credit for interest rates going down, then he can also take the hit for them going up.

There was actually good reasons for interest rates going up in the late 80's and early 90's and it wouldn't have been much fun being Treasurer, but the effects of the high interest rates and recession then caused interest rates to come down so much. IIRC interest rates were still going up in 1994 even though we were in recession but then fell dramatically. Keating actually argued to lift interest rates quicker and drop them quicker but the Reserve bank did their own thing.

Keating always tried to take the credit for any good news and then tried to either gild the lily with bad news.

To quote Gozu - "The 1982 wages explosion—wages rose 16 per cent across the country—resulted in stagflation; unemployment touched double-digits and inflation peaked at 12.5% (official interest rates peaked at 21%)"

In the late '70's money supply was increased dramatically to help drive down unemployment. This was the real reason inflation got its kick start. Then, the Liberal Govt tried to reform the labour market by pushing the Arbitration Commission to scrap wage indexation. The unions retaliated by pushing for big wage rises with the intent to destroy the Govt. and then the Reserve Bank cut money supply dramatically because of inflation. It was the perfect storm of high inflation, high wage increases and a restricted money supply. Inflation was 10.7 per cent, and Treasury and the Reserve Bank used high interest rates to drive down inflation. They succeeded, but only after creating a recession that destroyed the Government.

So, to be perfectly fair, every party was at fault and caused it.

Funny thing is - Keating then succeeded in getting rid of wage indexation

Here's an article from Keating's own man http://www.smh.com.au/news/Opinion/How-the-recession-we-had-to-have-built-a-decade-of-prosperity/2005/02/08/1107625210623.html

and to your final comment - Yes indeed; Keating = pig

[Jimmy_041]

The greatest political speech made in my lifetime by any politican by either side of the house.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhqAFLud228

Supposedly written by Don Watson and subsequently claimed by PJK as his own work

[redandblack]

Good post about the interest rates, Jimmy.

As for the wages explosion, Keating and Hawke deserve credit for the Wages Accord, which was a prime factor in solving that problem.

As for Keating, it's like most things. Those who don't like him think he was terrible with no redeeming features, those who did think the opposite, although I think they realise his faults.

From a political perspective, he was great entertainment and dominated the Parliament. He had a knack of getting to the nub of a matter in few words, such as his assessment of Mr Abbott a while ago.

"He's a wrecker", he said, "give me the top job or I'll wreck the joint"

[CK]

There is no one in the current parliament that is even in the same postcode as him when it comes to being an entertaining performer, nor the ability to cut off an opponent so quickly and effectively. While there is a fine line between being clever and being abusive - and Keating certainly crossed that line at times - as far as bringing some character to the place, it is hard to think of many, if any, who matched Keating in the mid 80's onwards. At least he was able to keep Wilson Tuckey in his place, for which parliament should remain forever grateful.

Gough Whitlam was probably the best proponent prior to him, but I rely on newsreel footage, anecdotal evidence and speech copy for that, whereas I saw plenty of Keating in action.

As a pure economist, I feel that Keating had some very good points mixed with some of the bad that many have correctly pointed out. That said, also feel credit must be due along the way also.

Also still chuckling about the Peacock and gigolo line

[Bat Pad]

When it comes to cutting down opponents with words on the Liberal side Peter Costello was probably the best in recent times

[Jimmy_041]

Good post about the interest rates, Jimmy.

As for the wages explosion, Keating and Hawke deserve credit for the Wages Accord, which was a prime factor in solving that problem.

As for Keating, it's like most things. Those who don't like him think he was terrible with no redeeming features, those who did think the opposite, although I think they realise his faults.

From a political perspective, he was great entertainment and dominated the Parliament. He had a knack of getting to the nub of a matter in few words, such as his assessment of Mr Abbott a while ago.

"He's a wrecker", he said, "give me the top job or I'll wreck the joint"

Actually, if you read the Don Russell article, he is saying the Price & Wages Accord was part of the problem in the late '80's

Quite enjoyable researching this stuff - brings back memories

[redandblack]

I agree with all of that, CK.

Whitlam was intellectually way above almost all of the parliament. At the time, the previous Labor leader was Arthur Calwell, hardly an inspiring man. He had a gravelly voice and had been up against Bob Menzies, a very patrician figure, but imposing and authoratative.

So Whitlam was a bit of a surprise and many thought he should have been a Liberal. He was lucky in some ways, in that Menzies had given way to Harold Holt, a decent man, but after his disappearance (a Sunday and I was playing cricket for the A&SCA team), Holt was succeeded by Gorton, a most unlikely Liberal and then Billy McMahon, the worst PM we've ever had.

Whitlam was a great orator, but the Parliament of the time had several colorful MP's, includiing the LIberal Jim Killen, a wonderful man with a great sense of humour and later Mick Young from Port Adelaide.

Keating's parliamentary performances made you want to watch question time. He was certainly a flawed character, but wonderfully so and was a breath of fresh air in an otherwise turgid parliament.

Unless you were on the receiving end, in which case he was a pig

[dedja]

Paul Keating (arrogant bastard) >>>>>> Alexander Downer (stuck up pommy loving pounce) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Christopher Pyne (excruciating poodle)

[Leaping Lindner]

Whitlam should be remembered for this cracker alone.......
Sir Winton Turnbull (Member for Mallee - a large rural seat) "I am a Country member".
Gough Whitlam "I remember".

[Jimmy_041]

Agree with both comments