AFL 2014

[Ron Burgundy]

Really like some lines today -

Brisbane +43.5
1.5 Units @ $1.92

GWS +28.5
2 Units @ $1.92

Gold Coast Win
2 Units @ $1.98

I took Rich -38.5 and Adelaide -28.5.
Different reads.
And that's why a market exists!

[mighty_tiger_79]

I have had to go back and invest more onto the bombers now that the line drifted on centrebet and ive also invested onto GWS but taken a more generous line

[mighty_tiger_79]

crows off to a good start

[mighty_tiger_79]

wow

I had the giants - 68.5

ffs

wheres the drambuie

[mighty_tiger_79]

Got the above into bombers +67.5

Thats my drip bet at $1.21

[mal]

This weeks odds
Best odds available from MOST Australian Corporate Bookies[at the time of posting]
Does not include TABS or Betfair

KA 4.04 PINNACLEBET
HW 1.298 PINNACLEBET

RI 1.165 PINNACLEBET
BL 6.25 LUXBET

GW 3.76 PINNACLEBET
AC 1.318 PINNACLEBET

GC 2-17 PINNACLEBET
CO 1.775 PINNACLEBET

ML 8.00 LUXBET
FR 1.133 PINNACLEBET

PA 1.273 PINNACLEBET
ES 4.35 BET365

CA 1.19 PINNACLEBET
SK 5-80 IASBET/SPORTSBET

WC 3-80 CENTREBET/SPORTINGBET
SS 1-321 PINNACLEBET

GE 1.117 PINNACLEBET
WB 7.71 PINNACLEBET


Best roughie would have to be Brisbane $6.25 against the enigmatic Richmond
The 36.5 points start looks a temptation as well

Another roughie might be Essendon against Port Adelaide
Likely to be a free flowing game , so whoever gets their mits on the ball most often may prosper
The 27.5 start Essendon , is very tempting

toot toot

[Dutchy]

SANFL
WWT Eagles -39.5
2 units @ $1.90

[Dutchy]

WCE/Sydney Under 153.5
1 Unit @ $1.90

[Dutchy]

Geelong/Bullies Under 182.5
1 Units @ $1.90

[mighty_tiger_79]

Very profitable weekend Dutchy $$$

[JK]

Sportsbet Market fotr most votes without Ablett - Any value in there?

S. Johnson seems to poll big when he does poll in recent seasons, any Cats fans comment on what his season's been like?

Scott Pendlebury 3.25 Nathan Fyfe 3.50 Josh Kennnedy (Syd) 4.50
Joel Selwood 10.00 Brent Harvey 14.00 Travis Boak 14.00
Dustin Martin 16.00 Scott Thompson 16.00 Trent Cotchin 16.00
Tom Rockliff 16.00 Matthew Priddis 21.00 Lance Franklin 21.00
Dayne Beams 23.00 Nathan Jones 23.00 Aaron Sandilands 23.00
Nick Dal Santo 26.00 Steve Johnson 26.00 Patrick Dangerfield 26.00
Robbie Gray 26.00 Dane Swan 31.00 Dion Prestia 34.00
Bryce Gibbs 51.00 Marc Murphy 51.00 Callan Ward 51.00
Michael Barlow 51.00 Nick Riewoldt 51.00 David Mundy 67.00
Shaun Burgoyne 67.00 Sam Mitchell 67.00 Chad Wingard 67.00
Steel Sidebottom 101.00 Leigh Montagna 101.00 Dan Hannebery 101.00
Jobe Watson 151.00

[mighty_tiger_79]

Johnson - average

[Dutchy]

Week 17
AFL 5-2 +5.20 units
SANFL 1-0 +2.00 units

YTD
AFL 66-55 +16.05 units
SANFL 13-15 -0.73 units
TOTAL +15.32 units

If betting $100 per unit you would be up $1,532

[mal]

Sportsbet Market fotr most votes without Ablett - Any value in there?

S. Johnson seems to poll big when he does poll in recent seasons, any Cats fans comment on what his season's been like?

Scott Pendlebury 3.25 Nathan Fyfe 3.50 Josh Kennnedy (Syd) 4.50
Joel Selwood 10.00 Brent Harvey 14.00 Travis Boak 14.00
Dustin Martin 16.00 Scott Thompson 16.00 Trent Cotchin 16.00
Tom Rockliff 16.00 Matthew Priddis 21.00 Lance Franklin 21.00
Dayne Beams 23.00 Nathan Jones 23.00 Aaron Sandilands 23.00
Nick Dal Santo 26.00 Steve Johnson 26.00 Patrick Dangerfield 26.00
Robbie Gray 26.00 Dane Swan 31.00 Dion Prestia 34.00
Bryce Gibbs 51.00 Marc Murphy 51.00 Callan Ward 51.00
Michael Barlow 51.00 Nick Riewoldt 51.00 David Mundy 67.00
Shaun Burgoyne 67.00 Sam Mitchell 67.00 Chad Wingard 67.00
Steel Sidebottom 101.00 Leigh Montagna 101.00 Dan Hannebery 101.00
Jobe Watson 151.00

NO
That is a terrible market to bet into
There is about 200% in the market
To get to a definitive 100% which is a break even market means you would have to double the odds on every player

[bennymacca]

Sportsbet Market fotr most votes without Ablett - Any value in there?

S. Johnson seems to poll big when he does poll in recent seasons, any Cats fans comment on what his season's been like?

Scott Pendlebury 3.25 Nathan Fyfe 3.50 Josh Kennnedy (Syd) 4.50
Joel Selwood 10.00 Brent Harvey 14.00 Travis Boak 14.00
Dustin Martin 16.00 Scott Thompson 16.00 Trent Cotchin 16.00
Tom Rockliff 16.00 Matthew Priddis 21.00 Lance Franklin 21.00
Dayne Beams 23.00 Nathan Jones 23.00 Aaron Sandilands 23.00
Nick Dal Santo 26.00 Steve Johnson 26.00 Patrick Dangerfield 26.00
Robbie Gray 26.00 Dane Swan 31.00 Dion Prestia 34.00
Bryce Gibbs 51.00 Marc Murphy 51.00 Callan Ward 51.00
Michael Barlow 51.00 Nick Riewoldt 51.00 David Mundy 67.00
Shaun Burgoyne 67.00 Sam Mitchell 67.00 Chad Wingard 67.00
Steel Sidebottom 101.00 Leigh Montagna 101.00 Dan Hannebery 101.00
Jobe Watson 151.00

NO
That is a terrible market to bet into
There is about 200% in the market
To get to a definitive 100% which is a break even market means you would have to double the odds on every player

Dumb question, but how do you work that out? Just bet on everyone and work out your return?

[mighty_tiger_79]

Go through the list and divide the individual odds into 100

That figure represents how much you need to invest to get a return of 100.

Add them all up and you get to the market %

[mal]

Sportsbet Market fotr most votes without Ablett - Any value in there?

S. Johnson seems to poll big when he does poll in recent seasons, any Cats fans comment on what his season's been like?

Scott Pendlebury 3.25 Nathan Fyfe 3.50 Josh Kennnedy (Syd) 4.50
Joel Selwood 10.00 Brent Harvey 14.00 Travis Boak 14.00
Dustin Martin 16.00 Scott Thompson 16.00 Trent Cotchin 16.00
Tom Rockliff 16.00 Matthew Priddis 21.00 Lance Franklin 21.00
Dayne Beams 23.00 Nathan Jones 23.00 Aaron Sandilands 23.00
Nick Dal Santo 26.00 Steve Johnson 26.00 Patrick Dangerfield 26.00
Robbie Gray 26.00 Dane Swan 31.00 Dion Prestia 34.00
Bryce Gibbs 51.00 Marc Murphy 51.00 Callan Ward 51.00
Michael Barlow 51.00 Nick Riewoldt 51.00 David Mundy 67.00
Shaun Burgoyne 67.00 Sam Mitchell 67.00 Chad Wingard 67.00
Steel Sidebottom 101.00 Leigh Montagna 101.00 Dan Hannebery 101.00
Jobe Watson 151.00

NO
That is a terrible market to bet into
There is about 200% in the market
To get to a definitive 100% which is a break even market means you would have to double the odds on every player

Dumb question, but how do you work that out? Just bet on everyone and work out your return?

34 players listed
Back every player for winnings of $100 and see what happens

EXAMPLE
Top 2 lines of players
$30.77 PENDLEBURY
$28.57 FYFE
$22.47 KENNEDY
$9.10 SELWOOD
$6.66 HARVEY
$6.66 BOAK

104.23 %

If punters backed those 6 players to win $100
They would invest $104.23
The return $100.00
The bookie wins $4.23
And we didnt even do the other 28 players

[Ecky]

I really think that a basic introduction to gambling including concepts like
- how to calculate the percentage in a market
- the fundamental laws of probability
- how to convert between probabilities and odds
- how to work out the probability you will win in the long term betting on markets with certain percentages etc.

should be a compulsory part of the high school maths curriculum. There are so many people out there who are happy to take terrible odds on things without having the skills to work out how much they are being ripped off. Same goes for people who bet on pokies and lotteries etc without having any real concept of how heavily the odds are stacked against them.

But then again, if it wasn't for these people keeping the bookies in business, the rest of us wouldn't be able to make our profits!

[JK]

I think some people, myself included at times, probably don't value their $$ enough .. So punt for fun without tying up a lot of time in study etc.

The bookies would love punters like me, but I don't bet big, and I use it as a casual hobby.

I was reasonably good at maths all through school and thereafter, was good at Bookkeeping and some Accounting work, but am fundamentally lazy and couldn't be bothered putting a lot of time in.

[bennymacca]

I think some people, myself included at times, probably don't value their $$ enough .. So punt for fun without tying up a lot of time in study etc.

The bookies would love punters like me, but I don't bet big, and I use it as a casual hobby.

I was reasonably good at maths all through school and thereafter, was good at Bookkeeping and some Accounting work, but am fundamentally lazy and couldn't be bothered putting a lot of time in.

nothing wrong with taking the worst of it if you are using that money as part of your entertainment budget and can afford it.

problem is with people who cant afford it.

i am all for greater availability of gambling to the general consumer, both live and online, live betting, casinos, poker, everything, but with the regulation dollars a significant increase in funding for support programs for problem gamblers.