Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[Brodlach]

I’ll be on Trapeze Artist again, barrier 18 and will be steaming home


Owes me nothing

[OnSong]

I’ll be on Trapeze Artist again, barrier 18 and will be steaming home


Owes me nothing

Brad Thompson loves this thing hey? Haha

[Computer Crashed]

WARRNAMBOOL will host a one-off marathon staying race over 4600m worth $300,000 in November next year.
The race known as the Jericho Cup, will commemorate the race run in 1918 on the desert sands of Palestine, just outside of Jericho, between Australian and New Zealand troops during World War I.
The race is the brainchild of Victorian philanthropist Bill Gibbons, who will sponsor the race through the Warrnambool Racing Club.
Racing Victoria’s executive general manager Greg Carpenter said they were looking forward to promoting the event with the WRC and hoped it would become an annual event.
The race will only be eligible for horses bred in Australia and New Zealand.
The make-up of the field will be determined by runners earning points in races over 3000m or more on the flat and also in feature jumps races the Great Eastern Steeple and the Grand Annual Steeple.

http://www.news.com.au/sport/superracin ... 0d5d3ee116

Love it.

Ric McIntosh will go ballistic.

Totally agree and Mcintosh should have taken over from Miles.
Well done Bill Gibbons.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Flemington
R2-1
R3-5
R4- i was on Aloft for the Melbourne Cup.....it will roll forward but not as quick this time.
Ive been a big fan of Havana Cooler. I havent had a bet on it this time in. But its Building. Will love the long straight and if Aloft does go too quick out front this will storm home and win.
R7-1
R8-1


Apart from about 5 horses i have no idea about most of these today....

Unusual not to see a Cups contender running today.

[mighty_tiger_79]

I think it was Pat Welsh on radiotab yesterday mentioning that only one international horse has won the Cup without a race here. That was Vintage Crop for a super trainer Dermot Weld

[JK]

Flemington .. Using the UBet cash back promo for first 5 races, so my bets then my syndicate bets ...

MR1 - 15 and 7
MR2 - 5 and 6
MR3 - 12 and 11
MR4 - 4 and 4
MR5 - 13 and 10
MR6 - 16
MR7 - 5
MR8 - 6
MR9 - 14 (tempted with 7 & 8 too, see what state the wallet's in by then)

Good luck to all having a dab!

[helicopterking]

Good Luck great days racing.
I've gone for a little value today all EW
Mr1# 15
MR2#4
Mr3#1
Mr4#10
MR5#17
Mr6#5
Mr7#6
Mr8#6
Mr9#14- Callow down to 53.5kg. Unheard of for him.

Depending on how they go. Ar8-1ew.

[Jimmy_041]

Rellson keeps bobbing up and both you have tipped it
I'm going to have a crack EW

[Jimmy_041]

Rellson keeps bobbing up and both you have tipped it
I'm going to have a crack EW

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Something on Limestone , owes me nothing $66 with Ladbrokes boost.
R3 Lake Como
R6 Global Glamour
R9 Man From Uncle.

Mind you I reckon the only 2 horses that were in the first three around the bend last Saturday that I backed ran stone motherless.

[LPH]

Merchant Navy!!!
$21 & $6

Hope you got on Boys

[Sheik Yerbouti]

04/11/2017 (Posted Wednesday 7:40pm)
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 6, 10

Thanks for that

[LPH]

Good Day

Winner @ $26 & $5.50 - Merchant Navy
2nd @ $2.80 - Sully
3rd @ $3.80 - Dixie Blossoms

Box Trifecta in the Derby

Will give it all back on Tuesday

[OnSong]

Good Day

Winner @ $26 & $5.50 - Merchant Navy
2nd @ $2.80 - Sully
3rd @ $3.80 - Dixie Blossoms

Box Trifecta in the Derby

Will give it all back on Tuesday

Well done LPH. I usually read your previews but was crook on Friday and too flat out this morning. Missed out big time

I backed 4 in the Derby, shortened from $20 to $11 on the tote, which was enough to make me sad. Lost that much value I didn't really care it didn't run a drum haha.

Tough day, Shoals looked obvious on paper. Didn't include it in my quaddie. Landed O'Lordy in Sydney at $21 so not a complete disaster.

Nice work whoever else went well but I can't see too many happy posts either haha

[mighty_tiger_79]

Is ch 7 not doing the preview show today for the Cup?

[JK]

Ordinary day, but live to fight (just lol) another day .. if only Missrock could have hung on for the quaddie!!

Merchant Navy great run, but Ace High was the run of the day, ultra impressive!!

[LPH]

Is ch 7 not doing the preview show today for the Cup?

racing .com had one this morning

[mighty_tiger_79]

Is ch 7 not doing the preview show today for the Cup?

racing .com had one this morning

I saw one on sky. I was looking for the one with Bruce..

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

[LPH]

07/11/2017 – Melbourne Cup Preview only (Posted: 11:50am Sunday 05/11/2017 )

Thought I would do the Cup today, then see if I can’t get some others late Monday night or early Tuesday to add. Good Day Saturday (how was Zahra's ride on Merchant Navy??? GOLD!) & a few $$$ to give back to the Bookies on Cup Day.

Each year I wade through the Form Guide trying to find the winner & each year (more often than not) I end up collecting on the race but because I’ve outlaid way too much on the Exotics, I end up losing on the race! Last year I backed the winner Almandin the Place, but lost on the race. I did win on the Day, but only mainly due to a Snowden filly, late on the Card. I usually spend way too much time & energy trawling through the Form Guide & trying in vain to assess the Form Lines of the overseas runners.

I am beginning to come around to the thoughts of ‘The Cups King’ & wanting the Cup to be for Australian & NZ horses only. It seems to be losing its appeal & as far as a punting proposition gets harder & harder to be successful at. But being the compulsive gambler that I am, I can’t resist continuing to try & ‘crack’ a big dividend – but 1 Trifecta collect in 35 years doesn’t suggest I know much about it, but I will always have fond memories of my 39th Birthday & cheering Shocking & Crime Scene down the Flemington straight in 2009.

Speaking of past history.
Only 2 winners of the race have been 8 year olds – the last was ‘Catalogue’ in 1938. That statistic alone is significant when trying to find the Winner of the race. Only 11 (including Almandin last year) 7 year olds have won the race, 4 since What a Nuisance in 1985 – Rogan Josh 1999, Makybe’s 3rd in 2005, Almandin & Vintage Crop 1993.

Since 2000 (Brew) 6 year olds have been the most successful, winning 9 Cups (only 29 in total). 5 year olds have a total of 47 winners (only 3 since Kingston Rule in 1990 – one of which was the Mare’s 1st in 2003, the last was Protectionist in 2014). 4 year olds have won 44 Cups (6 since Let’s Elope in 1991), the last being Shocking in 2009. 3 year olds have won
23 Cups but there are none in this year’s race, although Rekindling is an English 3 yr old.

What does all of this mean, I hear you ask?
Well, I think it is important to recognise historical factors when trying to wade through 24 runners & find a winner. These statistics (& they are only that, statistics) I think are relevant, as I am prepared to rule out all the 8 year olds in the field from winning the race. That means the following Numbers are out: 2 Almandin, 9 Max Dynamite, 11 Who Shot the Barman, 12 Wicklow Brave, 21 Thomas Hobson. This at least brings the field down to 19 contenders as a WINNING chance. With the statistics since 1985, I’m happy to remove the 7 year olds as well because I’m taking the Punt that last year was the ‘odd’ 7 year old winner. That means we can remove: 1 Hartnell, 16 Gallante, 17 Libran, 18 Nakeeta (although I am reluctant to remove him because of his Ebor win, but you can’t have them all).
Now we are down to 15 possible Winners – hard, isn’t it??? Just so you know; Box 15 Trifecta will cost you $2370 for 50% of the dividend!!!

So now we’ve used the Age as an ‘eliminator’, we can move to weights. Since Kingston Rule in 1990, the weight carried by the winner of the Race has ranged between; Brew carring 49kgs in 2000, 51kgs (Lets Elope 1991, Shocking 2009) to 58 kgs (Makybe Diva 2005). Of those, 16 of 27 have carried between 53kgs & 55.5kgs. The weights are so compressed this year, that this isn’t a suitable consideration, except perhaps removing 3 Humidor from winning calculations.

So, if weight isn’t a consideration, we have to now look at DISTANCE performances. Personally, apart from Age, I think this is THE most important consideration. There are a couple of considerations; (1) won at 2400m+, (2) placed 2400m+ in any of last 5 starts. Remove: 3, 7, 10, 19 – now down to a more manageable 11 runners.
That leaves: 4,5,6,8,13,14,15,20,22,23,24

The final ‘elimination process’ is Pre-post Price.
The last 20 years have the following results:
7/2; 6/1; 5/1; 14/1; 9/1; 11/2; 7/1; 5/2; 45/10; 18/1; 17/1; 40/1; 9/1; 12/1; 8/1; 18/1; 7/1; 7/1; 100/1; 10/1 … this suggests that only 15% of winners in the past 20 years have been priced above $15 & that 60% of winners have been 10/1 or shorter!
Of the remaining runners left in the Field (@ Midday Sunday prior to the Race), it leaves us with ONLY Marmelo under 10/1 & leaves us with Wall of Fire & Rekindling under $15.

Looking at the Jockeys for these 3 runners, we find that they are all Australian which is a BIG plus. Rekindling probably has the best Gate of the 3 runners, Marmelo’s ‘slashing run in the Caulfield Cup gives it the ‘form advantage’ & Wall of Fire has had the one ‘lead-up run’ & drops 5kgs from that 2nd in the Herbert Power. I will be backing ALL 3 Horses in the Race, Win & Place & I will have a little something on The Ebor winner Nakeeta.

Trifecta: 5, 20, 22/ 2, 5, 7, 9, 13, 18, 20, 22, 23/ Field (for 20%) $106
Box Trifecta: 2, 5, 18, 20, 21, 22 (for 30%) $36

Pick 4: 5, 20, 22/ 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 13, 18, 20, 22/ 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 13, 18, 20, 22/ 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 13, 18, 20, 22 (for 3%) $31
Box Pick 4: 2, 5, 9, 13, 20, 22 (for 5%) $18

Hope this gives you blokes something extra to ponder upon as you try in vain (like me) to find that elusive BIG pay out. I will assess the rest of the Card & add any thoughts when I get a chance. Happy Punting …

[mighty_tiger_79]

Whoshotthebarman

Is out of the Cup due to elevated temp