How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

[bennymacca]

good post.

kelly criterion works more in poker, which is where i have experience with it

[mighty_tiger_79]

So what rules should be implemented with staking?

there are so many different staking options to choose from?

I personally favour the can collection and put the mortgage on hold to invest it all onto the Late Mal

[Ecky]

So what rules should be implemented with staking?

there are so many different staking options to choose from?

Identifying overs in the first place is much more important than staking.
If you consistently bet on overs you will win in the long term no matter how much you stake.

[JK]

Just back on the Pokies, the return %age differs depending on which state and which type of establishment - The best rate of return I believe is in the NSW RSL's (around %81 last I checked, which was yonks ago). Conversely the pubs in NSW run at a lower rate.

It's worth noting too, that the returns don't pertain to payouts .. Some of the required %age comes via accumulation of small pays - ie, bet $1 on a spin that earns $0.70 return, which noone ever bothers to collect (or isn't possible to collect).

Also worth noting that the percentage is over a LONG period of time, not on a daily basis, so there's not necessarily an advantage to watch for a machine that hasn't paid, because it may take days or weeks before it spits out anything juicy.

[mal]

RECORDS
Not the ones that play music
The ones EVERY PUNTER should keep
Keep them for a minimum of 12 months
Then evaluate
Have a look where you win and lose
I can't emphasis how important this is
I've recorded bets starting way back in the 20th century

If your losing heavily , it might just be the wake up call you need
Some punters would not have the foggiest just how much they win or lose
They might be hundreds/ thousands lost in short term periods without realising it

Punting is like a sMALl business
Business operators need to keep records of what stock makes $$$ and what stock is a liability
Punters need to as well

[Ron Burgundy]

My cousin is a sports nut, and a punter. Also a programming gun. This isn't supposed to be a plug for his site, but a tool for people that love a bet on the horses.

He has a website, www.puntingform.com.au which is great for hunting market mismatches, and for trying to find overs.
http://www.puntingform.com.au/odds-comparison/

He also has functionality to subscribe to winning systems, or create your own systems using drivers like recent starts, preparations, classes, distances, tracks, trainers, jockeys, ratings, sectionals etc.

I haven't actually subscribed to anything on it but it might be of interest to some.
I'm more of a sports punter. In regard to keeping records, completely agree, I have gone much better once I started holding myself accountable.

[JK]

I'm more of a sports punter. In regard to keeping records, completely agree, I have gone much better once I started holding myself accountable.

And conversely I think I've fared much worse since I stopped keeping records

[bennymacca]

It's worth noting too, that the returns don't pertain to payouts .. Some of the required %age comes via accumulation of small pays - ie, bet $1 on a spin that earns $0.70 return, which noone ever bothers to collect (or isn't possible to collect).

This is a very good point. Because with pokies the reinvestment time is so short people typically keep going until they are significantly up or lost it all.

Compare once again with lotteries where you might have a huge house edge but if you invest $50 and get back $25 (or any amount less than your stop win) you don't have the opportunity to immediately reinvest.

Another thing that both pokies and online poker/casino suffers from is the fact that you are just gambling with a number on the screen, rather than anything tangible. It is much easier to forget about losing half your money on a screen than handing over tangible casino chips, or seeing a whole pile of losing bet slips sitting on the table next to you

[bennymacca]

I'm more of a sports punter. In regard to keeping records, completely agree, I have gone much better once I started holding myself accountable.

And conversely I think I've fared much worse since I stopped keeping records

Just knowing how well you are going is crucial. For my poker I have an iPhone app to track live poker results and also a stats tracking software (holdem manager) which keeps a database of every hand I have ever played online, which is way more useful than results tracking because I can analyse my and my opponents games

[bennymacca]

My cousin is a sports nut, and a punter. Also a programming gun. This isn't supposed to be a plug for his site, but a tool for people that love a bet on the horses.

He has a website, http://www.puntingform.com.au which is great for hunting market mismatches, and for trying to find overs.
http://www.puntingform.com.au/odds-comparison/

He also has functionality to subscribe to winning systems, or create your own systems using drivers like recent starts, preparations, classes, distances, tracks, trainers, jockeys, ratings, sectionals etc.

I haven't actually subscribed to anything on it but it might be of interest to some.
I'm more of a sports punter. In regard to keeping records, completely agree, I have gone much better once I started holding myself accountable.

The problem, in my opinion, with any sort of system, is that it assumes you, and everybody else can consistently beat the bookies using it. If that was true every bookie would be broke. Bookies also have dozens of people whose sole job is to set odds, and if they wanted to they could also utilise these sorts of systems too or at least develop counter strategies to them

[JK]

How do you find the online Poker sites Benny? I used to play regularly but haven't played in ages, but I used to find the tournaments fairly reasonable, whereas the Sit and Go's I thought were a bit like the Pokies (Any result that get's the game concluded on time or quicker so that punters could re-invest in another).

Problem with the tournaments though is finding the time for them.

[mighty_tiger_79]

POkerstars isn't the same without the yanks on it.

[bennymacca]

How do you find the online Poker sites Benny? I used to play regularly but haven't played in ages, but I used to find the tournaments fairly reasonable, whereas the Sit and Go's I thought were a bit like the Pokies (Any result that get's the game concluded on time or quicker so that punters could re-invest in another).

Problem with the tournaments though is finding the time for them.

I love online poker have accounts at all the major sites. Primarily a tournament player but time pressures have led me to try and learn cash games which I suck at.

With regards to win rates etc there are two different measures. Return on investment (ROI) for any sort of tournament, including sngs, and for cash games it is measured in big blinds won per 100 hands.

For tournaments the deeper the structure, ie the longer you play, the higher the potential ROI. Typical for tournaments are 10-80% return on investment for a solid winning player. Mine is around the 20-30 I think.

For sit and go tournaments that don't last as long, the opportunity for you to apply your skill edge over your opponents decreases and as such typical ROIs for good players are much lower, more like 2-10%. This means there is a smaller margin between a winning and losing player, ie you have to make less mistakes. But it has to be offset by the reinvestment time. If you are good you can play LOTS of them so turning over your money quickly can rapidly increase your hourly rate.

Different games also have different amounts of variance, or luck. But tournaments have the biggest luck factor as the prize is concentrated in the top few places of thousands of players, something like a small sng has comparatively lower variance. But in all it is common for players to have hundreds of buyins for the particular game they want to play. I try to keep at least 200 average buyins in my account and never go above 1/50 in any given tournament.

[bennymacca]

POkerstars isn't the same without the yanks on it.

To a certain extent that's true but on the other hand they are pretty much the only site that has a decent variety of games now. Full tilt is rubbish, party always had been, 888 is good but still very small and their software is bad.

If you guys want to talk specifically about poker I could start a new thread so I don't keep derailing this one with long winded replies

[JK]

There's a topic on it in here already somewhere mate (what's PKR like btw)?

[mighty_tiger_79]

benny - you should've been around when we had SAFOOTY on Pokerstars on Friday nights!

[mighty_tiger_79]

but Poker is gambling, so its relevant.

like finding the best corporate bookies, you have to find the best poker sites

[bennymacca]

but Poker is gambling, so its relevant.

like finding the best corporate bookies, you have to find the best poker sites

It's relevant but we might just open another thread to talk about the gambling elements of poker and the specific sites etc.

And poker is a skill game with significant elements of chance. Gambling by my definition is something that you can't win at long term. Sports betting is probably the interesting case in that regard.

[mighty_tiger_79]

I mean really

its only gambling if you lose

[Ron Burgundy]

My cousin is a sports nut, and a punter. Also a programming gun. This isn't supposed to be a plug for his site, but a tool for people that love a bet on the horses.

He has a website, http://www.puntingform.com.au which is great for hunting market mismatches, and for trying to find overs.
http://www.puntingform.com.au/odds-comparison/

He also has functionality to subscribe to winning systems, or create your own systems using drivers like recent starts, preparations, classes, distances, tracks, trainers, jockeys, ratings, sectionals etc.

I haven't actually subscribed to anything on it but it might be of interest to some.
I'm more of a sports punter. In regard to keeping records, completely agree, I have gone much better once I started holding myself accountable.

The problem, in my opinion, with any sort of system, is that it assumes you, and everybody else can consistently beat the bookies using it. If that was true every bookie would be broke. Bookies also have dozens of people whose sole job is to set odds, and if they wanted to they could also utilise these sorts of systems too or at least develop counter strategies to them

I agree. And have a financial risk analysis background so I'm aware of various modelling that would be done. And a good thing is only a good thing for so long, but a dollar can be made in short term trends.

That site isn't any one particular system. There are hundreds of different systems on there.
It is a create your own sort of environment.
I know on bloke that likes punting horses that have had 2 fourth places. You could add a criteria that last up it was a dead 4 (or whatever) and it is down a grade. And it will test this theory on past data to work out if it has been a common occurrence etc.
I don't use it because I don't follow horses close enough, but might be of use to some.