Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[gadj1976]

I'm seriously contemplating giving it all up.

Pretty much all of my analysis turns out incorrect. I just cannot read this at all and it's driving me nutz.

[Corona Man]

First at Flemington at 10.10, bugger me that's an early start...

Looking like following these today.

Race 4 no 3
Race 5 no 3
Race 6 no 8
The Cup Race 7 no 17... But may throw in no 12
Race 8 no 13
Race 9 no 16

Good luck to all having a punt.

Enjoy the day!

6 bets - 3 collects - $300 up. Thankyou linesmen, thankyou ball boys!

Watch the golf game turn to shite....

Find out tomorrow MT79!

[LPH]

I'm seriously contemplating giving it all up.

Pretty much all of my analysis turns out incorrect. I just cannot read this at all and it's driving me nutz.

Mate, its a tough game.
Roller Coaster Ride, really.

1. Keep Records of ALL Outlays & Collects - I have a Spreadsheet with 10 years of records. Down 4% over the Journey.
2. Value, Value, Value - that way when you get one it makes up for the 'outs'.
3. Don't over capitalize - bet within your limits, stick to your 'bank' %. A good rule of thumb is 10%.
4. Stay positive, we ALL have losing runs - anyone who says they don't are lying.

I look at it like this: If I still smoked (8 yrs given up), I would be spending probably $160 - $200 per week.
That's $10k per year. If I 1/2 that, $5K is my bank. I only bet 22 Weeks per year, basically Autumn & Spring Carnival.

Most of all, Enjoy it!

[Jimmy_041]

I did well today
Plus the missus caned the Sydney races
Big win with Skillful in the last
The hoop lost the whip with 150 to go on The Bull which cost us big time and I'm talking big time
Big shout out to LPH for his tips. Mate; your analysis is fantastic and I salute you

[Dutchy]

Almandin beats heartbreak city in an epic battle in the final furlong
Hartnell 3rd with qewy 4th

Spewing, I had 20 on Heartbreak City

I had $50 on it, not e/w

Got the trifecta for 10%, took the field for 3rd and the ****ing favourite comes third....had 4th also, but didn't take the Pick 4...one of those "what could have been" days

[LPH]

3/ 11/ 2016

So here we go again, no sooner does Cup Day end (of which I had a pretty good one, I don’t mind saying – Flippant winning for us was superb, having seen the Replay of the race, it won like a good thing!) & what a good Cup it was this year.

‘Hutchy’ on Get On is fast becoming the star tipster to follow – wouldn’t surprise me if they ‘move him on’ (like they did ‘Racetrack Ralphy’) for being too successful. After all, the Bookies run the Channel & the Show. Pays to make hay whilst the sun shines & follow him.

So to Oaks Day: Only betting on the one race on Thursday – he says, knowing full well that he’s more likely than not to bet on other races

But with all good intentions, here’s my Preview of the race:

Flemington Race 8 – The VRC Oaks

Have a look at the field Lads – THE best named Filly in the race is the bottom one “Penthouse Kitten”, out of Pentire by Scattercat…
I love witty owners!!! Gold!

The obvious is Yankee Rose – all things being equal, she wins.
But as you know by now, I can’t take those short odds, particularly over the 2500m. So I’m looking elsewhere. When the price is so short in these Group 1 distance races, I am reminded of the ‘unbeatable’ Whobegotyou getting rolled by a 100/1 shot a few years ago in the Derby.

On the Cox Plate run, you have to say she’s the ‘one’, but an extra 500m & 8kgs adds SOME doubt IMHO.
The weather forecast is fine, so we can assume a Good 4 again.

The form lines of those in the field with a winning hope, says they either ran on Saturday in the Wakeful &/or the Ethereal on Caulfield Cup Day – the one that didn’t run Saturday is the Hayes runner Harlow Gold, she ran in the Vase on Cox Plate Day against Boys.

The winner will come from No.s 1 to 9 (big statement, I know)
I believe Barriers play a big role in this race (& the Derby) because of the short run to the Winning Post at Flemington – the Speed Map suggests that Harlow Gold & Bella Sorellastra get the runs of the race on the fence, midfield, so both must be considered for Exotics at least.

No. 4 goes back to the tail of the field No. 9 pushes forward, 1, 3 & 6 have a choice to make – whether to push forward or go back. I think 1 & 6 push forward, which might mean they are a bit wide going around the 1st bend, meaning they will use up some ‘petrol’ early, whist I reckon Sebring Dream goes back.

The Kiwi Filly No 5 Elenora should lead early but I reckon Ollie will steady her up & give up the lead heading into the back straight.
I can see her sitting 3rd on the fence at the 1400m. She’s a winning hope IMHO & she could well look the winner at some point in the straight.
I want something on her – boosted Odds of $12. I also want to back Sebring Dream in the race - I can see her ‘peeling’ out around the 300m & following Yankee Rose into the straight. I would want $2.70 the PLACE to back her. Backing Elenora 2 x 5 Units. Exacta: 3, 5 / 1 for 3 Units.

Trifecta: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8

Looking forward to Saturday too, now.
I will be at the Cross Country of the 3-Day Event this week (no doubt keeping an ear on the Races from Flemington at the same time )
Hopefully, there's no bloody loser Protesters!

[Jimmy_041]

Mr & Mrs 041 at Randwick

[Mr Beefy]

Mr & Mrs 041 at Randwick

Let her have some lunch next time Jimmy!

[Jimmy_041]

Mr & Mrs 041 at Randwick

Let her have some lunch next time Jimmy!

I'll let her know
Another fantastic Rosewater contribution to society

[JK]

Will study further tomorrow, but at this stage basing my exotics around:

Hartnell
Big Orange
Wicklow Brave
Almandin

Will add a few more in different combos, probably Bondi Beach and Secret City.

I'm sure leaving Jameka or Oceanographer out will come back to bite, but can't pick them all and like to get a bit of value in there.

That was meant to be Heartbreak City, but I forgot to get the bet on!!

Good day, lots of froffs .. Always back Josh Parr rides so winning the first 3 at Randy was a great start to the day .. Dried up thereafter though

[Jimmy_041]

He was on The Bull as well
Apart from losing the whip, he was told not to get caught on the fence which he did

[JK]

He was on The Bull as well
Apart from losing the whip, he was told not to get caught on the fence which he did

Yeah I was on that too but didn't see the race

[Yank Man]

I'm really interested in Yankee Rose. She beat the Derby winner Prized Icon home in Sydney, then ran a cracker in the Cox Plate with no weight. She steps out to 2500m, goes up 8kg and her sire All American only won 1 race over a mile and her dam was unraced. She looks a good thing but at $1.65 she is way unders, but it does look like an average field this year.

[Jimmy_041]

My bets so far

MR2 16
5 13
6 trifecta; 1,2,9,11 &13
7 1
8 1 (only coz I always back her) + 7 ew & boosted

Good luck

[Corona Man]

My bets so far

MR2 16
5 13
6 trifecta; 1,2,9,11 &13
7 1
8 1 (only coz I always back her) + 7 ew & boosted

Good luck

I just realised its Oaks day.... between that & the cricket starting soon, I won't get any work done!

[Jimmy_041]

Add
MR3 2
9 5

[mighty_tiger_79]

Flemington quaddie
Race 6 - I have 1-3-11 ahead of 9-13
Race 7 1-4 ahead of 5-6
R8 - 1-2-3 ahead of 4-5. Can't touch Yankee Rose and didn't mind Sebring Dream
R9 - 2-3-4-5-7-13-15 in a tough leg, hoping for value

[Jimmy_041]

Trifecta and First Four

[OnSong]

Haven't made a cent out of Sebring Dream this spring. Feel like it owes me haha.

Anyone else backing it?

[Brodlach]

Now that's a win WOW!