The South Australian Political Landscape

[Jimmy_041]

So I guess another Cory poster goes up in the bedroom, one for each of his parties.

No orange allowed in our house other than an Aperol Spritz

[Booney]

So I guess another Cory poster goes up in the bedroom, one for each of his parties.

No orange allowed in our house other than an Aperol Spritz

There's a few places that Cory isn't allowed in then.

[Jimmy_041]

He joined ON 6 weeks ago, but gets 8 years in the Legislative Council for doing SFA.

I doubt he’ll last a year in her colours, why would he, he’s got those 8 years to fatten up his bank and super accounts with no accountability required in return.

In other news, Patto now 8 votes ahead in Morphett on 2CP.

I think you'll find he's "once bitten twice shy" on that front.

He's a much stronger person than Sarah Game (who I've met and actually rate as a person) and will stand up to PH if she does stupid stuff.
He also doesn't have a nutcase Mum getting in his ear about getting her a gig.

[Jimmy_041]

So I guess another Cory poster goes up in the bedroom, one for each of his parties.

No orange allowed in our house other than an Aperol Spritz

There's a few places that Cory isn't allowed in then.

The more amusing thing is: I'm allowed in them

[am Bays]

Dedja nailed it people 1/5 people voted ON because they are pissed off by the status quo, cost of living and housing. They basically feel disenfranchised.

Should qualify it by saying that, based on previous elections half those who voted ON would probably vote Liberal, but how could you at the moment with all the infighting and shag show of leaders up until December last year.

[Pseudo]

Well done to the people who voted ON with their first preference, $6 per vote to Hansen and her Queensland team.

By voting for cock and balls, does $6 go to a men's health charity?

[Booney]

Dedja nailed it people 1/5 people voted ON because they are pissed off by the status quo, cost of living and housing. They basically feel disenfranchised.

Should qualify it by saying that, based on previous elections half those who voted ON would probably vote Liberal, but how could you at the moment with all the infighting and shag show of leaders up until December last year.

True, you could either vote for an unserious part or an unserious party.

[RB]

A front for the Libs??? The same Libs preferencing Labor??

The Liberals recommended preferences to ON ahead of the ALP everywhere.

Whether those recommendations are followed is another matter.

There is a theory that those left with the Liberals might be more moderate than the voters who deserted to ON, and so more likely to put the ALP ahead of ON. Really we don't know yet and it'll be interesting to see what the flow is (also for ON flow to ALP/LIB).

But it's hard to imagine a majority of Liberal voters putting the ALP ahead of ON. My guess would be it's somewhere between 60-40 and 80-20 in favour of ON.

[Jim05]

Pure guesswork but judging by how quick some people voted I’d think that the majority of voters who willingly take one of the how to vote cards being handed out would vote exactly as indicated on the card.

[dedja]

Pure guesswork but judging by how quick some people voted I’d think that the majority of voters who willingly take one of the how to vote cards being handed out would vote exactly as indicated on the card.

Dick pics don’t take long to draw …

[Jim05]

Pure guesswork but judging by how quick some people voted I’d think that the majority of voters who willingly take one of the how to vote cards being handed out would vote exactly as indicated on the card.

Dick pics don’t take long to draw …

Depends on how hairy the balls are

[wenchbarwer]

A man of culture, I see

[RB]

Pure guesswork but judging by how quick some people voted I’d think that the majority of voters who willingly take one of the how to vote cards being handed out would vote exactly as indicated on the card.

The follow rate tends to be higher for the majors than the minors (often in smaller booths the minors don't have anyone handing out HTVs so that makes sense). However it's not that high, and the thing is that when a party recommends 'exotic' preferences (e.g. the Greens very occasionally put the Liberal ahead of Labor in the odd seat where it doesn't matter just to get up Labor's goat when they've had a spat over something), their voters tend to ignore them and vote the way they usually do. Antony Green and others have written about this.

So the actual influence that HTV recommendations have over voters is not as high as you might think.

[Jimmy_041]

Amazing the amount of people who were seduced* by Pauline.

*

I don’t think they were seduced by her as such, sure she has a small weird cult following but feel like the bulk are disenfranchised Liberal voters who feel they have no one else to vote for.
I was once a rusted on Libs voter but haven’t done for some time and as someone who will never ever vote Labor I just find it easier to scrawl a cock and two balls rather than vote ON or others though

Not sure about that - Primary votes (51.9% counted)

0.9% overall swing away from ALP

But look at these electorates:
Elizabeth - 14.7% swing away from ALP
Giles - 14.5% swing away from ALP
Kauna - 7% swing away from ALP
Light - 18.1% swing away from ALP
Mawson - 5.6% swing away from ALP
Pt Adelaide - 7.1% swing away from ALP
Taylor - 10.5% swing away from ALP

There may be some local reasons which I dont know (or care) about but for such a landslide, Labor would be very worried they got less Primary vote and those electorates had massive contrary swings

I take a bit of a different view.

Given the large increase in the overall number of candidates, I don't think the ALP would be especially worried about a 0.9% swing away (which equals the swing to the Greens coincidentally). In fact given the various factors they'd have to be happy with that I think.

Additionally, you could list a heap of seats with primary vote swings towards Labor, e.g. Waite swung over 25% to Labor. See also Newland, Davenport, Kavel, and some other generally leafy seats.

The seats you listed above are, I guess, the sort of Labor-held seats which could eventually go the way of ON if similar swings occur again next time around. So I suppose that highlights potential future battlegrounds. While there was a 2PP ALP-Liberal swing in Labor's favour, it's sort of irrelevant when the Liberals are doing so poorly and if ON don't flame out, maybe they could pinch a couple of these seats off Labor next time.

But I'd be highly surprised if even the most pessimistic in the Labor camp were 'very worried' based on the above.

That's the fun thing about elections - everyone can be right or wrong and/or right and wrong.
We can all have an opinion that differs markedly from someone else.
I reckon the well oiled election crew within SA Labor would leave nothing to chance
Even Turbo spluttered something about Labor voters moving over to ON due to housing / immigration

I will practice the dark art of psephology later in the week

[Brodlach]

Stephen Patterson leads Toby Priest by 4votes!


Not a fan of Priest so hopefully it stays this way

[dedja]

Stephen Patterson leads Toby Priest by 4votes!


Not a fan of Priest so hopefully it stays this way

Patterson was 8 votes up, then 2 up, then 5 behind and now 4 up.

Almost certainly a recount, perhaps more than once!

[Jimmy_041]

Well this amuses me in so many ways
https://mailchi.mp/673ca132021b/sturt-f ... 14e1986340

Pyne explaining how he has destroyed the Liberal Party in SA

Holding it at the Kent Town, home of One Nation, instead of the Robin Hood
Maybe they think hundreds will turn up to hear the poodle

[Brodlach]

Priest now in front by 34

[dedja]

Well this amuses me in so many ways
https://mailchi.mp/673ca132021b/sturt-f ... 14e1986340

Pyne explaining how he has destroyed the Liberal Party in SA

Holding it at the Kent Town, home of One Nation, instead of the Robin Hood
Maybe they think hundreds will turn up to hear the poodle

While the result at the State Election was not what we hoped for, our candidates in the eastern and north eastern suburbs did a fantastic job spreading the Liberal message in very difficult circumstances.

[RB]

Priest now in front by 34

There should be about 2,000 postals that haven't been counted yet. You'd expect them to favour Patterson very narrowly. So this could be a real nailbiter.