Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I heard some analysis yesterday of the PM's decision to call the election so early meant no matter how much of a stink Abbott kicks up over an MP's seat it meant they were locked in now regardless? Not sure if that is right and plus I think Labor can afford to lose a seat or two and still remain in govt.
Either way Thomson is expected to be charged with 150 counts of fraud, not sure you can run with the defence the police have made 150 mistakes there
Fairly certain that it's actually not official until parliament is dissolved.
Last edited by Grahaml on Thu Jan 31, 2013 2:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
However, it might mean that it's not entirely practical for Tony Abbott to force an earlier election. It does seem odd timing with the Craig Thompson issue appearing again, but if Gillard knew, announcing the date the day before he got marched to the cop shop has given Tony Abbott a free kick in front of goal 25 seconds in.
Not at all surprised though that he's been charged. It looked the whole time that it was simply too difficult for the parties involved to keep such a story going without there being something in it and the report that came out couldn't have been full of lies. Makes you look back at that speech and wonder whether he was actually emotional because he'd been caught out and was desperate.
Looking at the last election and how close that was, I think Labor will struggle to hold Dobell after this. They had a 5% margin but the people in that electorate must be seething. Fisher is a safe Liberal seat and Slipper won't get the Liberal preselection for that so out of the current parliament, that's two seats likely lost. Andrew Wilkie should hold Denison and won't side with Labor again. Katter is Liberal leaning, but might lose a lot of votes with his new party, most will go to the LNP. If he loses it, that seat will stay with the coalition. Oakeshott and Windsor are wildly popular in their seats, but the people there are conservative voting. They might not like the fact their vote kept Labor in power for 3 years and we could well see big swings to the coalition there. Probably not enough to take either seat, but independants can lose 25% very swiftly. So IMHO, if the rest of the country stays the same, Labor still lose 2 seats and won't gain any of the others while Liberal might get 1 or more of the mainland independants. Puts Labor in the position of needing to win other seats somewhere when it looks more like they'll lose a bunch.
Tony Abbott will not want a by election in Dobell as his first choice, he would much rather various commentators discuss how the ALP paid out Thomson's debts and have picked up the tab for all his legal fees to keep him in government and have supported him whilst being aware of what the charges were likely to be and what the evidence was. Gillard has personally supported and defended him sevaral times over and again that will be discussed at length in the media. The slur alone will cost the ALP a number of seats, let alone the media content.
If the ALP have any wish to not be absolutley belted in the election as they were in NSW and QLD they will stage a sudden comeback by Kevin Rudd and go to a poll ASAP, they willl still lose, but will likely at least stem their losses somewhat.
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Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I heard some analysis yesterday of the PM's decision to call the election so early meant no matter how much of a stink Abbott kicks up over an MP's seat it meant they were locked in now regardless? Not sure if that is right and plus I think Labor can afford to lose a seat or two and still remain in govt.
Either way Thomson is expected to be charged with 150 counts of fraud, not sure you can run with the defence the police have made 150 mistakes there
Fairly certain that it's actually not official until parliament is dissolved.
I think it only becomes official when someone drives to the big house with a petition 30 days before the date She could be playing games and do it tomorrow. That would be hectic
Wasn't Oakshot reported on radio yesterday considering if he'll stand again for his seat? If true, maybe a sign that the most important thing to a politician (the numbers) are stacked against him in his electorate.
Let that be a lesson to you Port, no one beats the Bays five times in a row in a GF and gets away with it!!!
Gozu wrote:southee you and the other one should let the police do their job, they're investigating to see IF there is anything to warrant charging the guy.
Bully wrote:his wife looks good or was that his daughter or hooker with him in a picture yesterday (the black haried woman)
That was his missus. Good how she has stuck by him , that's a good quality. I think the law is going to find it hard to nail him on all these charges. Maybe they have witnesses secreted away
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