Abbott/Liberal Govt Watch

[heater31]

Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.

The ABC election analyst is disputing those figures saying it doesn't make sense.

[Booney]

Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.

The ABC election analyst is disputing those figures saying it doesn't make sense.

He'd know what doesn't make sense.

[heater31]

Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.

The ABC election analyst is disputing those figures saying it doesn't make sense.

He'd know what doesn't make sense.

What's Going on with House Seat Numbers

I have received numerous questions about why the ABC website is not using the current seat totals on the Australian Electoral Commission's (AEC's) website.

The reason is that the AEC's current seat totals are not totals of seats won, but simply totals of seats where a party is leading. This is not an indication that a party has won these seats.

On the ABC site I prefer to leave these seats as remaining in doubt, not to include them in a total of seats won. The ABC's current seat count is Coalition 68, Labor 67, Others 5 and 10 seats undecided. Five of those seats sit on margins of under 0.5%.

Beyond this issue of dealing with very close seats, there is a second problem. The AEC site is currently excluding six seats that have clearly been won by one of the major parties.

These seats only have first preference tallies. Of these six seats, Labor has clearly won Grayndler, and the Coalition has clearly won Cowper, Higgins, Barker, Durack and O'Connor.

The reason these seats are not included in the AEC's totals is that these seats do not have significant preference counts. The AEC only has first preference totals. On the AEC's website, seats can only be given away if there is a significant two-candidate preferred count. Despite these six seats clearly being capable of being given away on first preferences, five for the Coalition and one for Labor, the lack of two-candidate preferred counts means the AEC won't give them away on its website.

If these six seats are included, and using the AEC's method of totaling all seats where parties lead, then the seat totals are Coalition 72, Labor 72, Greens 1, Nick Xenophon Team 2, Katter's Australian Party 1 and Independents 2.

While the Nick Xenophon team is currently leading on a very tiny preference count in the South Australian seat of Grey, it is not at all clear that the seat can be counted as being won by the Xenophon Team. If they don't win the seat, then the Coalition tally would be 73.

Starting from Tuesday morning, postal, absent and pre-poll absent votes will begin to be included in the count. The postal votes in particular will play a critical part in deciding the remaining doubtful seats.

As the new totals are released, the seat totals on the AEC website will start to change based on leading candidates, and the ABC website will start to give away some of the doubtful seats.

What won't change is the six seat discrepancy between the two sites which is entirely due to the six seats currently excluded from the AEC's totals.

[stan]

Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.

The ABC election analyst is disputing those figures saying it doesn't make sense.

They work on numbers only and the party that is in front enough to be leading at this point in time. No preferences have been taken into account at this point. So I would expect it to change a bit ober the coming days.

[Wedgie]

Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.

The ABC election analyst is disputing those figures saying it doesn't make sense.

The Chewbacca defense!

[Wedgie]

Surely as the legislation that didn't get through and caused the double dissolution has even less chance of getting through now Malcolm Turnbull would have to fall on his sword no matter what?

[MW]

I think he can call another election...could you imagine?
This election is a result of Turnbull looking after his mega rich mates vs a media hungry former unionist who wants everything for nothing.
A quarter of first preferences were for parties other than Libs or Labor. What does that tell you. They have both lost their touch.

[stan]

Surely as the legislation that didn't get through and caused the double dissolution has even less chance of getting through now Malcolm Turnbull would have to fall on his sword no matter what?

Well that is being questioned at the moment with some media. In reality he changed the senate legislation and then called the DD election which could result in a hung parliament and a senate that includes possibly 2 one nation candidates, 3 nxt and then Hinch as well with probably Lambie as well.

Basically the DD call with the change of legislation has caused a shit mess in the senate with additional crazies. If they still manage to hang on it will be tough as hell to pass anything.

[Q.]

Yes, it's turned into a complete clusterphuck for Mal

[Booney]

Heard this morning that the newly elected senators could be in for 3 or 6 years. Basically the top 6 in each state ( each state has 12 senators, NT and ACT 2 each ) stay in for 6 years, the other 6 for only 3.

How do they select which senators stay for 6 years and which for only 3?

[Jimmy_041]

Heard this morning that the newly elected senators could be in for 3 or 6 years. Basically the top 6 in each state ( each state has 12 senators, NT and ACT 2 each ) stay in for 6 years, the other 6 for only 3.

How do they select which senators stay for 6 years and which for only 3?

Correct - First thing the Senate does is address this. Convention says the top 6 are in for 6 years and bottom 6 for 3 years

[am Bays]

Heard this morning that the newly elected senators could be in for 3 or 6 years. Basically the top 6 in each state ( each state has 12 senators, NT and ACT 2 each ) stay in for 6 years, the other 6 for only 3.

How do they select which senators stay for 6 years and which for only 3?

NT and ACT senators are for the terms of parliament only, i.e. every three years.

[RB]

Heard this morning that the newly elected senators could be in for 3 or 6 years. Basically the top 6 in each state ( each state has 12 senators, NT and ACT 2 each ) stay in for 6 years, the other 6 for only 3.

How do they select which senators stay for 6 years and which for only 3?

They do what they want, basically:

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/201 ... ution.html

[Pseudo]

Heard this morning that the newly elected senators could be in for 3 or 6 years. Basically the top 6 in each state ( each state has 12 senators, NT and ACT 2 each ) stay in for 6 years, the other 6 for only 3.

How do they select which senators stay for 6 years and which for only 3?

Rock-paper-scissors.

[woodublieve12]

I honestly can't believe Hanson, Hinch, Lami and Hinchh all got in. Unbelievable

[Grahaml]

Crackpots always manage to resonate with some people. People somehow think they're badly off and want to put the blame somewhere. These people come along say whatever people want to hear without any possibility they will actually have to act on that.

Hindmarsh getting to be super tight. ALP have had their margin halved and the last election the Libs "won" the postals by 800 odd. Looking more and more like this one might slip from the ALP. Might be the seat that makes it a certaintly the LNP are able to form government.

[Grenville]

Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.

Don't rely on anything the AEC spruiks, they wouldn't know if their arse was on fire.

[westozfalcon]

Why on earth can't we have first-past-the-post voting in the lower house?

With such a simple, honest system there'd be fewer informal votes, no need for how-to-vote cards and we'd get a quicker, clearer result.

[heater31]

Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.

Don't rely on anything the AEC spruiks, they wouldn't know if their arse was on fire.

Anthony Green saying

Coalition 70
Labor 67
Greens 1
NXT 1
Other 3
Undecided 8

[Grahaml]

People should be able to vote for a minor party of independant but still have their vote count in the two party preferred poll. Wouldn't be fair for people to need to decide which of their preferred people was actually more likely to win. I'd actually like to see the whole party system brought down and have a house of people representative of their electorates but that's an entirely different discussion.

How to vote cards and guides should in fact be banned. And the zone where people are banned from canvassing should be widened to include the queueing areas too.

I know we just made a change to the senate, but it hardly seems fair that a party can get say 1.01 quotas and be nil chance of a second, while a party with .25 of a quota can be a big chance of picking up a seat. More than 4 times the vote, yet equal numbers of seats? Not quite democratic IMHO.